Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 3, 2026, 9:51 a.m.

Overall Rationale: These rankings are a calculated Strength of Record rating. They are not predictive, but they are derived from an underlying predictive metric.

This ranks teams by how hard their record would be to match. It's a measure of what they've achieved, not what we predict they'll do.

For each team, the model takes an average top-12 team and imagines it playing the team in question's exact schedule: same opponents, same sites, with opponents rated by the same opponent-adjusted system used for the main predictive rankings. It then computes the chance that this hypothetical strong team would finish with a record at least as good as the team being rated. A lower percentage means a more impressive resume: it means even an elite team would struggle to match what this team has actually done.

On the underlying predictive rating: I run a algorithm called ExTAN (https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/). That algorithm is predictive and bases its formula on in-season results (scores, home/away, and opponent). That algorithm is consistently in the top 20 in metrics tracked on PredictionTracker.com. Those predictive ratings are used to calculate the Strength of Record used in these rankings.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Kentucky Wildcats	31.1%
2	Miami Hurricanes	33.9%
3	UCLA Bruins	39.1%
4	Utah Utes	56.3%
5	Georgia Bulldogs	57.4%
6	Indiana Hoosiers	61.3%
7	Ole Miss Rebels	62.9%
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	65.9%
9	Texas Longhorns	67.8%
10	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	70.4%
11	BYU Cougars	73.4%
12	Ohio State Buckeyes	74.5%
13	LSU Tigers	81.5%
14	Tennessee Volunteers	82.3%
15	Florida Gators	82.6%
16	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	83.6%
17	Missouri Tigers	85.8%
18	Texas Tech Red Raiders	86.6%
19	USC Trojans	86.6%
20	Boise State Broncos	89.1%
21	UTSA Roadrunners	89.8%
22	South Carolina Gamecocks	92.0%
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	92.7%
24	Houston Cougars	93.6%
25	Northwestern Wildcats	93.9%

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Kentucky Wildcats	1.39
2	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
3	UCLA Bruins	0.00
4	Utah Utes	0.00
5	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
6	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
7	Ole Miss Rebels	1.21
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.05
9	Texas Longhorns	0.00
10	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.00
11	BYU Cougars	-0.34
12	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
13	LSU Tigers	0.00
14	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
15	Florida Gators	4.40
16	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-2.72
17	Missouri Tigers	0.40
18	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-1.15
19	USC Trojans	0.00
20	Boise State Broncos	0.00
21	UTSA Roadrunners	0.41
22	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.78
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	-0.13
24	Houston Cougars	-1.16
25	Northwestern Wildcats	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Arizona Wildcats	0.54
New Mexico Lobos	0.29

Total Score: 14.97