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rob_bot13 Ballot for 2026 Week 10

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 1, 2026, 7:02 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I use a margin of victory ELO system that I hybridize with human rankings to promote stability. ELO is fundamentally a resume based stat, but because it cares a lot about margin of victory it can be noisy in terms of teams that beat up on bad teams. It is on my todo list to add garbage time filtering and a pace adjustment. The helps to not over react to computer noise while also having less inertia than purely human polls. 1500 is used as the value for an average FBS team (currently 64th rated Tulane is at 1498 as an example). Anything above ~1750 is a national title contender, ~1600 usually gets you into the top 25. Dividing the difference of 2 ratings by 12 gives an approximation of a Vegas line at a neutral site.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs 1800 points: 3rd in ELO at 1795 overall, would be my personal pick for best team right now. Abusing Florida helps to make the SEC pecking order more clear. 3 ranked matchups to go though.
2 Miami Hurricanes 1774 points: What a rough week. ELO has them at 1730 points, but they stay at 2nd as much as anything because none of the other teams have risen to meet them.
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1770 points: Miami next week, will make this more clear.
4 LSU Tigers 1765 points: LSU remains the biggest point of contention between my ELO model and the humans. at 1828 points, It predicts an 11.5 point spread against Alabama, I currently see it at 5.5 points.
5 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 1765 points: ELO loves that they keep embarrassing reasonable ACC teams (1819 points). I'd be curious how other people would rank their resume? I feel like they are as low as they are in part because of the name on the helmets. The ELO model is probably also giving too much credit for winning by a million. Top 5 is definitely still a bit much though.
6 UCLA Bruins 1757 points: Boring win was boring, but a playoff berth is starting to look likely.
7 Texas Longhorns 1736 points: I think they are a lock to make the playoffs and lose a close game in the first round when they can't run the ball.
8 Ole Miss Rebels 1735 points: Do they have what it takes to hang with UGA? Is the defense actually good now? I trust this team less than several of the other good SEC teams, but they have looked excellent recently. I still think they have at least 1 more loss in them though.
9 Alabama Crimson Tide 1730 points: I'm ready to get embarrassed by LSU next week.
10 Utah Utes 1729 points: Next 2 weeks will tell us how real this is. Very hyped for the holy war.
11 Indiana Hoosiers 1715 points: They keep getting away with it!
12 Missouri Tigers 1659 points: Is Missouri good? Can they do to Texas what they did to Florida?
13 Kentucky Wildcats 1704 points: Bye
14 Ohio State Buckeyes 1744 points: Woof.
15 Tennessee Volunteers 1700 points: Bye
16 BYU Cougars 1696 points: Holy war with stakes! Also in the they keep getting away with it category.
17 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1693 points: I am so deeply unconvinced by this team. Really wish we got to see them play Utah or BYU in the regular season.
18 Iowa Hawkeyes 1682 points: Kirk Ferentz is a wizard. B1G West vibes are alive and well.
19 South Carolina Gamecocks 1663 points: Lenoris Sellers is good again? South Carolina remain one of the most confusing teams in college football. Very happy Alabama got them when they did.
20 Houston Cougars 1647 points: Bridesmaid year for Houston. I think the schedule is too soft for them to make the playoff field even if they win out.
21 USC Trojans 1643 points: They can win the B1G title somehow. What a weird year.
22 Duke Blue Devils 1637 points: What a murder. More evidence that some of the blowouts are getting too much credit from the ELO system. Will continue to tinker.
23 Baylor Bears 1635 points: More evidence that some of the blowouts are getting too much credit from the ELO system. Will continue to tinker.
24 Oregon Ducks 1634 points: They still feel fraudulent, but apparently the OC was just terrible? Still a year from hell.
25 Arizona Wildcats 1625 points: First 5 out: UNC (1619), Liberty (1617), Boise State (1615), Texas A&M (1613), Northwestern & New Mexico (1611). I would personally have at least one of the G6 teams in over Baylor or Oregon.

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