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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2026 Week 10

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 1, 2026, 9:42 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll that comes up with the simplest explanation for all W/L results in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), balancing the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-style logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's graph of wins and losses: it does not consider MoV, rosters, previous seasons, conferences and divisions, etc. Every week is counted equally. Lower NCAA divisions are included in the calculations, but this top 25 is filtered to FBS teams. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. For the MLE to converge, I add two fictitious teams, one who has beaten everyone and one who has lost to everyone, then stretch the gap between them to infinity. The teams gather into groups between the two ("circles of suck" where each team has transitively beaten the rest), characterized by a Group Score (GS) for each group and relative Team Scores (TS) within each group. Group Scores have the property that no team with a lower GS has beaten a team with a higher GS. For each team in a group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score within its group. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/07999a7c8cd76e58f52d541b89f3ce92>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com.

Rank Team Reason
1 Miami Hurricanes (±0) GS .957, TS 815.
2 Utah Utes (±0) GS .935, TS 1343.
3 UCLA Bruins (±0) GS .935, TS 1320.
4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (±0) GS .914, TS 1631.
5 Kentucky Wildcats (±0) GS .871, TS 3199: 40.2% #10 South Carolina + 37.3% #12 LSU + 18.2% #16 Oklahoma + 3.9% #26 Texas A&M + 0.4% #50 Vanderbilt = 100% #7 Alabama.
6 Georgia Bulldogs (+1) GS .871, TS 3150: 52.5% #7 Alabama + 30.6% #13 Florida + 15.7% #16 Oklahoma + 0.9% #37 Arkansas + 0.4% #50 Vanderbilt = 100% #17 Auburn.
7 Alabama Crimson Tide (−1) GS .871, TS 3128: 52.4% #5 Kentucky + 28.3% #10 South Carolina + 16.2% #15 Mississippi State + 3.0% #26 Texas A&M + 0.1% #65 Florida State = 59.3% #11 Tennessee + 40.7% #6 Georgia.
8 Texas Longhorns (±0) GS .871, TS 3043: 33.5% #9 Ole Miss + 31.9% #11 Tennessee + 19.8% #15 Mississippi State + 12.0% #19 Ohio State + 2.8% #31 UTSA = 56.6% #16 Oklahoma + 43.4% #13 Florida.
9 Ole Miss Rebels (+3) GS .871, TS 3013: 45.6% #12 LSU + 31.2% #14 Missouri + 21.4% #17 Auburn + 1.2% #42 Louisville + 0.7% #50 Vanderbilt = 54.6% #13 Florida + 45.4% #8 Texas.
10 South Carolina Gamecocks (+3) GS .871, TS 3000: 39.9% #11 Tennessee + 37.8% #13 Florida + 22.3% #16 Oklahoma = 54.5% #15 Mississippi State + 26.1% #7 Alabama + 19.4% #5 Kentucky.
11 Tennessee Volunteers (−1) GS .871, TS 2997: 73.0% #7 Alabama + 24.7% #17 Auburn + 2.2% #37 Arkansas + 0.1% #71 Georgia Tech = 53.3% #10 South Carolina + 46.7% #8 Texas.
12 LSU Tigers (−1) GS .871, TS 2983: 50.5% #15 Mississippi State + 36.0% #17 Auburn + 11.2% #26 Texas A&M + 1.9% #43 Clemson + 0.5% #60 Louisiana Tech = 67.1% #9 Ole Miss + 32.9% #5 Kentucky.
13 Florida Gators (−4) GS .871, TS 2979: 42.6% #8 Texas + 39.5% #9 Ole Miss + 17.9% #17 Auburn = 46.5% #14 Missouri + 33.9% #10 South Carolina + 19.6% #6 Georgia.
14 Missouri Tigers (+3) GS .871, TS 2876: 78.6% #13 Florida + 16.2% #26 Texas A&M + 4.8% #37 Arkansas + 0.3% #69 Kansas = 61.9% #15 Mississippi State + 38.1% #9 Ole Miss.
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs (±0) GS .871, TS 2870: 50.2% #10 South Carolina + 37.6% #14 Missouri + 12.2% #24 Minnesota = 40.9% #16 Oklahoma + 25.4% #12 LSU + 20.0% #8 Texas + 13.7% #7 Alabama.
16 Oklahoma Sooners (±0) GS .871, TS 2834: 56.2% #8 Texas + 40.3% #15 Mississippi State + 3.4% #38 New Mexico = 61.5% #27 Michigan + 20.3% #10 South Carolina + 10.2% #6 Georgia + 8.0% #5 Kentucky.
17 Auburn Tigers (+1) GS .871, TS 2787: 94.9% #6 Georgia + 2.7% #50 Vanderbilt + 2.4% #52 Baylor = 26.5% #13 Florida + 26.1% #12 LSU + 24.5% #11 Tennessee + 22.9% #9 Ole Miss.
18 Indiana Hoosiers (+1) GS .871, TS 2784: 45.8% #24 Minnesota + 37.6% #27 Michigan + 13.3% #36 Northwestern + 2.5% #58 Nebraska + 0.8% #70 North Texas = 100% #19 Ohio State.
19 Ohio State Buckeyes (−5) GS .871, TS 2759: 56.7% #18 Indiana + 39.6% #22 Iowa + 3.6% #46 Illinois = 82.8% #29 USC + 17.2% #8 Texas.
20 BYU Cougars (±0) GS .871, TS 2725: 47.6% #21 Notre Dame + 32.1% #25 Arizona + 16.1% #32 Iowa State + 2.2% #55 Arizona State + 2.0% #57 TCU + 0.1% #95 Colorado State = 100% #51 UCF.
21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (±0) GS .871, TS 2698: 63.5% #28 Wisconsin + 20.1% #40 Purdue + 10.5% #47 North Carolina + 4.9% #56 Stanford + 1.0% #73 Michigan State + 0.1% #103 Navy = 100% #20 BYU.
22 Iowa Hawkeyes (+2) GS .871, TS 2670: 33.0% #27 Michigan + 33.0% #28 Wisconsin + 20.4% #32 Iowa State + 13.6% #35 Washington = 62.1% #24 Minnesota + 37.9% #19 Ohio State.
23 Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) GS .871, TS 2653: 50.8% #25 Arizona + 42.1% #30 Houston + 3.9% #55 Arizona State + 2.8% #59 Colorado + 0.4% #78 Oregon State = 100% #33 Cincinnati.
24 Minnesota Golden Gophers (−2) GS .871, TS 2589: 49.2% #22 Iowa + 35.0% #27 Michigan + 15.9% #35 Washington = 67.2% #40 Purdue + 19.6% #18 Indiana + 13.2% #15 Mississippi State.
25 Arizona Wildcats (−2) GS .871, TS 2587: 40.4% #32 Iowa State + 37.3% #33 Cincinnati + 22.1% #41 West Virginia + 0.1% Northern Arizona = 56.7% #23 Texas Tech + 43.3% #20 BYU.

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