NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2026 Week 10
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 1, 2026, 10:18 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
2.422 [9.93-2.07] |
| 2 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
2.398 [11.18-0.82] |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
2.301 [9.23-2.77] |
| 4 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
2.290 [9.14-2.86] |
| 5 |
Utah Utes
|
2.278 [11.08-0.92] |
| 6 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
2.235 [9.02-2.98] |
| 7 |
LSU Tigers
|
2.185 [8.60-3.40] |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
2.162 [8.61-3.39] |
| 9 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
2.036 [10.46-1.54] |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
2.005 [8.36-3.64] |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1.961 [7.81-4.19] |
| 12 |
Florida Gators
|
1.902 [7.42-4.58] |
| 13 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.851 [10.51-1.49] |
| 14 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.820 [7.26-4.74] |
| 15 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.756 [9.33-2.67] |
| 16 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
1.749 [10.26-1.74] |
| 17 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.747 [9.24-2.76] |
| 18 |
UCLA Bruins
|
1.691 [10.44-1.56] |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
1.622 [6.39-5.61] |
| 20 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
1.608 [6.23-5.77] |
| 21 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.599 [9.91-2.09] |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.557 [5.45-6.55] |
| 23 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.519 [5.77-6.23] |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
1.443 [8.63-3.37] |
| 25 |
Houston Cougars
|
1.407 [8.91-3.09] |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.48 |
| 2 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.43 |
| 4 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
2.12 |
| 5 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.51 |
| 6 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
0.03 |
| 7 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.02 |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.23 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.19 |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.06 |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
2.33 |
| 12 |
Florida Gators
|
5.99 |
| 13 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-1.82 |
| 14 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
5.34 |
| 15 |
BYU Cougars
|
-1.63 |
| 16 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
-0.59 |
| 17 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-0.64 |
| 18 |
UCLA Bruins
|
-3.87 |
| 19 |
Auburn Tigers
|
6.22 |
| 20 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
5.21 |
| 21 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
-2.04 |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
3.22 |
| 23 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
2.20 |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Houston Cougars
|
-1.49 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
USC Trojans
|
1.53 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.81 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
1.12 |
New Mexico Lobos
|
0.29 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
0.20 |
Total Score: 53.60