Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Dec. 2, 2024, 8:57 a.m.
Overall Rationale: I've updated my process to a two-iteration calculation Step 1 - for each team, add up the wins of all the teams they beat, and the losses of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games. This gives the team's raw score, which is then normalized (the best score becomes 1, the worst score becomes 0, and all other scores are in between). Step 2 - for each team, add up the normalized score of all the teams they beat, and 1 minus the normalized score of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games again. This score is normalized again (which is needed if we want to do more iterations). I did find that while you can repeat step 2 over and over, it wasn't significantly changing anything in my rankings. Note: FCS wins count as half of the normal value, and FCS losses count as double the normal value. So if you beat a 5 win FCS team, you get 2.5 points in step 1, and if you lose to a 2 loss FCS team, you lose 4 points in step 1. In step 2, FCS wins are 0 and FCS losses are -1.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | wins [Idaho: 0, Boise State: 0.893, Oregon State: 0.423, UCLA: 0.548, Michigan State: 0.466, Ohio State: 0.911, Purdue: 0.192, Illinois: 0.73, Michigan: 0.726, Maryland: 0.434, Wisconsin: 0.47, Washington: 0.584] UNDEFEATED |
2 | Texas Longhorns | wins [Colorado State: 0.58, Michigan: 0.726, UTSA: 0.466, UL Monroe: 0.427, Mississippi State: 0.292, Oklahoma: 0.601, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Florida: 0.63, Arkansas: 0.502, Kentucky: 0.409, Texas A&M: 0.719] losses [Georgia: -0.128] |
3 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | wins [Texas A&M: 0.719, Purdue: 0.192, Miami (OH): 0.598, Louisville: 0.74, Stanford: 0.331, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Navy: 0.717, Florida State: 0.295, Virginia: 0.484, Army: 0.822, USC: 0.548] losses [Northern Illinois: -0.459] |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | wins [Akron: 0.342, Western Michigan: 0.42, Marshall: 0.705, Michigan State: 0.466, Iowa: 0.648, Nebraska: 0.509, Penn State: 0.868, Purdue: 0.192, Northwestern: 0.367, Indiana: 0.819] losses [Oregon: 0, Michigan: -0.274] **** EDITOR'S NOTE: this team should have fallen completely out of the top 25 after they way played on Saturday, absolutely inexcusable. I'm ok with losing but at least try to win instead of just giving up at halftime. |
5 | Penn State Nittany Lions | wins [West Virginia: 0.505, Bowling Green: 0.512, Kent State: 0, Illinois: 0.73, UCLA: 0.548, USC: 0.548, Wisconsin: 0.47, Washington: 0.584, Purdue: 0.192, Minnesota: 0.601, Maryland: 0.434] losses [Ohio State: -0.089] |
6 | SMU Mustangs | wins [Nevada: 0.28, Houston Christian: 0, TCU: 0.584, Florida State: 0.295, Louisville: 0.74, Stanford: 0.331, Duke: 0.726, Pittsburgh: 0.584, Boston College: 0.626, Virginia: 0.484, California: 0.47] losses [BYU: -0.21] |
7 | Georgia Bulldogs | wins [Clemson: 0.708, Tennessee Tech: 0, Kentucky: 0.409, Auburn: 0.434, Mississippi State: 0.292, Texas: 0.932, Florida: 0.63, Tennessee: 0.758, Massachusetts: 0.189, Georgia Tech: 0.63] losses [Alabama: -0.153, Ole Miss: -0.285] |
8 | Boise State Broncos | wins [Georgia Southern: 0.665, Portland State: 0, Washington State: 0.601, Utah State: 0.302, Hawai'i: 0.356, UNLV: 0.758, San Diego State: 0.196, Nevada: 0.28, San José State: 0.523, Wyoming: 0.306, Oregon State: 0.423] losses [Oregon: 0] |
9 | Indiana Hoosiers | wins [Florida International: 0.228, Western Illinois: 0, UCLA: 0.548, Charlotte: 0.441, Maryland: 0.434, Northwestern: 0.367, Nebraska: 0.509, Washington: 0.584, Michigan State: 0.466, Michigan: 0.726, Purdue: 0.192] losses [Ohio State: -0.089] |
10 | Iowa State Cyclones | wins [North Dakota: 0, Iowa: 0.648, Arkansas State: 0.512, Houston: 0.391, Baylor: 0.698, West Virginia: 0.505, UCF: 0.42, Cincinnati: 0.495, Utah: 0.438, Kansas State: 0.708] losses [Texas Tech: -0.278, Kansas: -0.441] |
11 | Arizona State Sun Devils | wins [Wyoming: 0.306, Mississippi State: 0.292, Texas State: 0.552, Kansas: 0.559, Utah: 0.438, Oklahoma State: 0.327, UCF: 0.42, Kansas State: 0.708, BYU: 0.79, Arizona: 0.377] losses [Texas Tech: -0.278, Cincinnati: -0.505] |
12 | Miami Hurricanes | wins [Florida: 0.63, Florida A&M: 0, Ball State: 0.263, South Florida: 0.448, Virginia Tech: 0.584, California: 0.47, Louisville: 0.74, Florida State: 0.295, Duke: 0.726, Wake Forest: 0.381] losses [Georgia Tech: -0.37, Syracuse: -0.189] |
13 | Alabama Crimson Tide | wins [Western Kentucky: 0.633, South Florida: 0.448, Wisconsin: 0.47, Georgia: 0.872, South Carolina: 0.794, Missouri: 0.715, LSU: 0.705, Mercer: 0, Auburn: 0.434] losses [Vanderbilt: -0.459, Tennessee: -0.242, Oklahoma: -0.399] |
14 | BYU Cougars | wins [Southern Illinois: 0, SMU: 0.9, Wyoming: 0.306, Kansas State: 0.708, Baylor: 0.698, Arizona: 0.377, Oklahoma State: 0.327, UCF: 0.42, Utah: 0.438, Houston: 0.391] losses [Kansas: -0.441, Arizona State: -0.231] |
15 | South Carolina Gamecocks | wins [Old Dominion: 0.477, Kentucky: 0.409, Akron: 0.342, Oklahoma: 0.601, Texas A&M: 0.719, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Missouri: 0.715, Wofford: 0, Clemson: 0.708] losses [LSU: -0.295, Ole Miss: -0.285, Alabama: -0.153] |
16 | Syracuse Orange | wins [Ohio: 0.662, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Holy Cross: 0, UNLV: 0.758, NC State: 0.53, Virginia Tech: 0.584, California: 0.47, UConn: 0.53, Miami: 0.815] losses [Stanford: -0.669, Pittsburgh: -0.416, Boston College: -0.374] |
17 | Tennessee Volunteers | wins [Chattanooga: 0, NC State: 0.53, Kent State: 0, Oklahoma: 0.601, Florida: 0.63, Alabama: 0.847, Kentucky: 0.409, Mississippi State: 0.292, UTEP: 0.206, Vanderbilt: 0.541] losses [Arkansas: -0.498, Georgia: -0.128] |
18 | Army West Point | wins [Lehigh: 0, Florida Atlantic: 0.185, Rice: 0.381, Temple: 0.27, Tulsa: 0.142, UAB: 0.278, East Carolina: 0.541, Air Force: 0.388, North Texas: 0.488, UTSA: 0.466] losses [Notre Dame: -0.082] |
19 | UNLV Rebels | wins [Houston: 0.391, Utah Tech: 0, Kansas: 0.559, Fresno State: 0.452, Utah State: 0.302, Oregon State: 0.423, Hawai'i: 0.356, San Diego State: 0.196, San José State: 0.523, Nevada: 0.28] losses [Syracuse: -0.189, Boise State: -0.107] |
20 | Missouri Tigers | wins [Murray State: 0, Buffalo: 0.591, Boston College: 0.626, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Massachusetts: 0.189, Auburn: 0.434, Oklahoma: 0.601, Mississippi State: 0.292, Arkansas: 0.502] losses [Texas A&M: -0.281, Alabama: -0.153, South Carolina: -0.206] |
21 | Illinois Fighting Illini | wins [Eastern Illinois: 0, Kansas: 0.559, Central Michigan: 0.31, Nebraska: 0.509, Purdue: 0.192, Michigan: 0.726, Michigan State: 0.466, Rutgers: 0.52, Northwestern: 0.367] losses [Penn State: -0.132, Oregon: 0, Minnesota: -0.399] |
22 | Clemson Tigers | wins [App State: 0.503, NC State: 0.53, Stanford: 0.331, Florida State: 0.295, Wake Forest: 0.381, Virginia: 0.484, Virginia Tech: 0.584, Pittsburgh: 0.584, The Citadel: 0] losses [Georgia: -0.128, Louisville: -0.26, South Carolina: -0.206] |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | wins [Furman: 0, Middle Tennessee: 0.238, Wake Forest: 0.381, Georgia Southern: 0.665, South Carolina: 0.794, Oklahoma: 0.601, Arkansas: 0.502, Georgia: 0.872, Mississippi State: 0.292] losses [Kentucky: -0.591, LSU: -0.295, Florida: -0.37] |
24 | Louisville Cardinals | wins [Austin Peay: 0, Jacksonville State: 0.584, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Virginia: 0.484, Boston College: 0.626, Clemson: 0.708, Pittsburgh: 0.584, Kentucky: 0.409] losses [Notre Dame: -0.082, SMU: -0.1, Miami: -0.185, Stanford: -0.669] |
25 | Michigan Wolverines | wins [Fresno State: 0.452, Arkansas State: 0.512, USC: 0.548, Minnesota: 0.601, Michigan State: 0.466, Northwestern: 0.367, Ohio State: 0.911] losses [Texas: -0.068, Washington: -0.416, Illinois: -0.27, Oregon: 0, Indiana: -0.181] |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
2 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
3 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.00 |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.48 |
5 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
6 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
7 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
8 | Boise State Broncos | 0.00 |
9 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.00 |
10 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.98 |
11 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.00 |
12 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
13 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
14 | BYU Cougars | 0.00 |
15 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 0.00 |
16 | Syracuse Orange | 1.36 |
17 | Tennessee Volunteers | -1.98 |
18 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
19 | UNLV Rebels | 0.00 |
20 | Missouri Tigers | 0.85 |
21 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.00 |
22 | Clemson Tigers | -0.22 |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | -1.48 |
24 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
25 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.09 |