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redleg86 Ballot for 2024 Week 15

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 2, 2024, 8:57 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I've updated my process to a two-iteration calculation Step 1 - for each team, add up the wins of all the teams they beat, and the losses of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games. This gives the team's raw score, which is then normalized (the best score becomes 1, the worst score becomes 0, and all other scores are in between). Step 2 - for each team, add up the normalized score of all the teams they beat, and 1 minus the normalized score of all the teams to whom they lost. Then subtract the loss score from the win score and divide by the total number of games again. This score is normalized again (which is needed if we want to do more iterations). I did find that while you can repeat step 2 over and over, it wasn't significantly changing anything in my rankings. Note: FCS wins count as half of the normal value, and FCS losses count as double the normal value. So if you beat a 5 win FCS team, you get 2.5 points in step 1, and if you lose to a 2 loss FCS team, you lose 4 points in step 1. In step 2, FCS wins are 0 and FCS losses are -1.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks wins [Idaho: 0, Boise State: 0.893, Oregon State: 0.423, UCLA: 0.548, Michigan State: 0.466, Ohio State: 0.911, Purdue: 0.192, Illinois: 0.73, Michigan: 0.726, Maryland: 0.434, Wisconsin: 0.47, Washington: 0.584] UNDEFEATED
2 Texas Longhorns wins [Colorado State: 0.58, Michigan: 0.726, UTSA: 0.466, UL Monroe: 0.427, Mississippi State: 0.292, Oklahoma: 0.601, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Florida: 0.63, Arkansas: 0.502, Kentucky: 0.409, Texas A&M: 0.719] losses [Georgia: -0.128]
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins [Texas A&M: 0.719, Purdue: 0.192, Miami (OH): 0.598, Louisville: 0.74, Stanford: 0.331, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Navy: 0.717, Florida State: 0.295, Virginia: 0.484, Army: 0.822, USC: 0.548] losses [Northern Illinois: -0.459]
4 Ohio State Buckeyes wins [Akron: 0.342, Western Michigan: 0.42, Marshall: 0.705, Michigan State: 0.466, Iowa: 0.648, Nebraska: 0.509, Penn State: 0.868, Purdue: 0.192, Northwestern: 0.367, Indiana: 0.819] losses [Oregon: 0, Michigan: -0.274] **** EDITOR'S NOTE: this team should have fallen completely out of the top 25 after they way played on Saturday, absolutely inexcusable. I'm ok with losing but at least try to win instead of just giving up at halftime.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions wins [West Virginia: 0.505, Bowling Green: 0.512, Kent State: 0, Illinois: 0.73, UCLA: 0.548, USC: 0.548, Wisconsin: 0.47, Washington: 0.584, Purdue: 0.192, Minnesota: 0.601, Maryland: 0.434] losses [Ohio State: -0.089]
6 SMU Mustangs wins [Nevada: 0.28, Houston Christian: 0, TCU: 0.584, Florida State: 0.295, Louisville: 0.74, Stanford: 0.331, Duke: 0.726, Pittsburgh: 0.584, Boston College: 0.626, Virginia: 0.484, California: 0.47] losses [BYU: -0.21]
7 Georgia Bulldogs wins [Clemson: 0.708, Tennessee Tech: 0, Kentucky: 0.409, Auburn: 0.434, Mississippi State: 0.292, Texas: 0.932, Florida: 0.63, Tennessee: 0.758, Massachusetts: 0.189, Georgia Tech: 0.63] losses [Alabama: -0.153, Ole Miss: -0.285]
8 Boise State Broncos wins [Georgia Southern: 0.665, Portland State: 0, Washington State: 0.601, Utah State: 0.302, Hawai'i: 0.356, UNLV: 0.758, San Diego State: 0.196, Nevada: 0.28, San José State: 0.523, Wyoming: 0.306, Oregon State: 0.423] losses [Oregon: 0]
9 Indiana Hoosiers wins [Florida International: 0.228, Western Illinois: 0, UCLA: 0.548, Charlotte: 0.441, Maryland: 0.434, Northwestern: 0.367, Nebraska: 0.509, Washington: 0.584, Michigan State: 0.466, Michigan: 0.726, Purdue: 0.192] losses [Ohio State: -0.089]
10 Iowa State Cyclones wins [North Dakota: 0, Iowa: 0.648, Arkansas State: 0.512, Houston: 0.391, Baylor: 0.698, West Virginia: 0.505, UCF: 0.42, Cincinnati: 0.495, Utah: 0.438, Kansas State: 0.708] losses [Texas Tech: -0.278, Kansas: -0.441]
11 Arizona State Sun Devils wins [Wyoming: 0.306, Mississippi State: 0.292, Texas State: 0.552, Kansas: 0.559, Utah: 0.438, Oklahoma State: 0.327, UCF: 0.42, Kansas State: 0.708, BYU: 0.79, Arizona: 0.377] losses [Texas Tech: -0.278, Cincinnati: -0.505]
12 Miami Hurricanes wins [Florida: 0.63, Florida A&M: 0, Ball State: 0.263, South Florida: 0.448, Virginia Tech: 0.584, California: 0.47, Louisville: 0.74, Florida State: 0.295, Duke: 0.726, Wake Forest: 0.381] losses [Georgia Tech: -0.37, Syracuse: -0.189]
13 Alabama Crimson Tide wins [Western Kentucky: 0.633, South Florida: 0.448, Wisconsin: 0.47, Georgia: 0.872, South Carolina: 0.794, Missouri: 0.715, LSU: 0.705, Mercer: 0, Auburn: 0.434] losses [Vanderbilt: -0.459, Tennessee: -0.242, Oklahoma: -0.399]
14 BYU Cougars wins [Southern Illinois: 0, SMU: 0.9, Wyoming: 0.306, Kansas State: 0.708, Baylor: 0.698, Arizona: 0.377, Oklahoma State: 0.327, UCF: 0.42, Utah: 0.438, Houston: 0.391] losses [Kansas: -0.441, Arizona State: -0.231]
15 South Carolina Gamecocks wins [Old Dominion: 0.477, Kentucky: 0.409, Akron: 0.342, Oklahoma: 0.601, Texas A&M: 0.719, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Missouri: 0.715, Wofford: 0, Clemson: 0.708] losses [LSU: -0.295, Ole Miss: -0.285, Alabama: -0.153]
16 Syracuse Orange wins [Ohio: 0.662, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Holy Cross: 0, UNLV: 0.758, NC State: 0.53, Virginia Tech: 0.584, California: 0.47, UConn: 0.53, Miami: 0.815] losses [Stanford: -0.669, Pittsburgh: -0.416, Boston College: -0.374]
17 Tennessee Volunteers wins [Chattanooga: 0, NC State: 0.53, Kent State: 0, Oklahoma: 0.601, Florida: 0.63, Alabama: 0.847, Kentucky: 0.409, Mississippi State: 0.292, UTEP: 0.206, Vanderbilt: 0.541] losses [Arkansas: -0.498, Georgia: -0.128]
18 Army West Point wins [Lehigh: 0, Florida Atlantic: 0.185, Rice: 0.381, Temple: 0.27, Tulsa: 0.142, UAB: 0.278, East Carolina: 0.541, Air Force: 0.388, North Texas: 0.488, UTSA: 0.466] losses [Notre Dame: -0.082]
19 UNLV Rebels wins [Houston: 0.391, Utah Tech: 0, Kansas: 0.559, Fresno State: 0.452, Utah State: 0.302, Oregon State: 0.423, Hawai'i: 0.356, San Diego State: 0.196, San José State: 0.523, Nevada: 0.28] losses [Syracuse: -0.189, Boise State: -0.107]
20 Missouri Tigers wins [Murray State: 0, Buffalo: 0.591, Boston College: 0.626, Vanderbilt: 0.541, Massachusetts: 0.189, Auburn: 0.434, Oklahoma: 0.601, Mississippi State: 0.292, Arkansas: 0.502] losses [Texas A&M: -0.281, Alabama: -0.153, South Carolina: -0.206]
21 Illinois Fighting Illini wins [Eastern Illinois: 0, Kansas: 0.559, Central Michigan: 0.31, Nebraska: 0.509, Purdue: 0.192, Michigan: 0.726, Michigan State: 0.466, Rutgers: 0.52, Northwestern: 0.367] losses [Penn State: -0.132, Oregon: 0, Minnesota: -0.399]
22 Clemson Tigers wins [App State: 0.503, NC State: 0.53, Stanford: 0.331, Florida State: 0.295, Wake Forest: 0.381, Virginia: 0.484, Virginia Tech: 0.584, Pittsburgh: 0.584, The Citadel: 0] losses [Georgia: -0.128, Louisville: -0.26, South Carolina: -0.206]
23 Ole Miss Rebels wins [Furman: 0, Middle Tennessee: 0.238, Wake Forest: 0.381, Georgia Southern: 0.665, South Carolina: 0.794, Oklahoma: 0.601, Arkansas: 0.502, Georgia: 0.872, Mississippi State: 0.292] losses [Kentucky: -0.591, LSU: -0.295, Florida: -0.37]
24 Louisville Cardinals wins [Austin Peay: 0, Jacksonville State: 0.584, Georgia Tech: 0.63, Virginia: 0.484, Boston College: 0.626, Clemson: 0.708, Pittsburgh: 0.584, Kentucky: 0.409] losses [Notre Dame: -0.082, SMU: -0.1, Miami: -0.185, Stanford: -0.669]
25 Michigan Wolverines wins [Fresno State: 0.452, Arkansas State: 0.512, USC: 0.548, Minnesota: 0.601, Michigan State: 0.466, Northwestern: 0.367, Ohio State: 0.911] losses [Texas: -0.068, Washington: -0.416, Illinois: -0.27, Oregon: 0, Indiana: -0.181]

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