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quantum_jedi Ballot for 2024 Week 15

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 2, 2024, 9:20 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins and losses are weighted by the difference in "rank" between the winner/loser and the median team. Scaled such that beating strong teams matters more than beating weak teams, and losing to bad teams is worse than losing to strong teams. Winning is weighted slightly more than losing. Results are scaled by offensive and defensive points per drive efficiencies, and strength of schedule determined by cumulative opponents score. Preseason rankings are weighted by returning production, talent composite, and previous season success. Next five out: UNLV, LSU, Georgia Tech, Louisiana, Michigan.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks (+0) Methodical in putting away Washington without much doubt. Up next is Penn State in the B1G Championship.
2 Texas Longhorns (+2) Smothered A&M. The Longhorn defense is legit and the offense does just enough. Next up is a rematch with Georgia for the SEC Championship.
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+0) USC put up more of a fight than I expected, but back-to-back 99+ yard pick-6s iced the game for Notre Dame. Get an extra week of rest and should be a lock for the CFP.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions (+1) Rolled over Maryland. Up next is Oregon in the B1G Championship.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3) Well that was probably the worst possible outcome for the Buckeyes... Ohio State will likely make the CFP regardless of the outcome of The Game, but no B1G Championship and another loss to Michigan bodes poorly for Ryan Day.
6 Indiana Hoosiers (+1) Absolutely evaporated Purdue. Indiana is 11-1 for the first time ever and in the midst of their best season since 1945. Indiana should be a lock for the CFP with their only loss being at Ohio State, but the committee has set precedent for omitting "deserving" teams for the perceived "best" teams.
7 Georgia Bulldogs (+1) Oh man that was a legendary game that Georgia should not have won, but talent, depth, and help from the officials kept Georgia around long enough to eek out the win in 8OT. Hopefully the Bulldogs can keep the momentum going into the SEC Championship against Texas.
8 SMU Mustangs (+2) Cal has been a feisty team, but SMU controlled every aspect of this game to move to 11-1 on the year. The Pony Express rides into the ACC Championship game against Clemson.
9 Miami Hurricanes (-3) Well that wasn't ideal... Miami jumped out to a huge lead, but let it all slip away in a heartbreaking loss to Syracuse. The Hurricanes are now at the mercy of the CFP committee and the results of the various conference championship games.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide (+1) Everything seemed to work out for Alabama this past week. Seemed to be on the outside looking in after an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma, but after winning the Iron Bowl and significant chaos around them the Tide have as good of an argument as anyone to be in the CFP field. We shall see how the committee decides to evaluate a 'Bama team with great wins, but also really bad losses.
11 Arizona State Sun Devils (+2) What a season for the Sun Devils! 10-2 and a spot in the Big12 Championship game. Incredible how quickly Kenny Dillingham has pulled ASU out of the abyss left by Herm Edwards. It should be between Dillingham and Cignetti for Coach of the Year.
12 Tennessee Volunteers (+0) Fell behind early against Vandy due to some special teams mistakes, but then finally got into gear and crushed the Commodores. The Vols are right on the bubble for an at-large bid to the CFP with a good win over Alabama, but a bad loss against Arkansas (my rankings have them as the next team out). It will all depend on how the committee values the SEC (or even Alabama vs Tennessee).
13 Iowa State Cyclones (+2) Iowa State secures their first 10-win season ever! A tremendous win over Kansas State in Farmageddon and it's off to the Big12 Championship game against ASU. Winner goes to the playoff and the loser is likely left out.
14 Boise State Broncos (+2) Boise State jumped out to a quick lead against the Beavs and held on to secure an 11-1 season. Jeanty rolled to another 200+ rushing yards and the Broncos are off to the MW Championship against UNLV. Right now it's Boise's playoff spot to lose.
15 Ole Miss Rebels (-1) After a shaky first quarter, the Rebels shutout Mississippi State to win the Egg Bowl. Certainly not the season that Ole Miss was hoping for with some high highs (win against Georgia!) and some inexplicably low lows (losing to Kentucky?!?).
16 BYU Cougars (+1) Took care of business against Houston, but less convincing than you would have hoped from the Cougars. Due to various tie-breakers, BYU will not play for a conference championship.
17 South Carolina Gamecocks (+2) South Carolina has finished the season 6-0 and looks as good as anybody over the back half of the year. Sellers is one of the most electric players in the FBS and the defensive line is fantastic. It seems like each team in the #9-#18 region has an argument to be in the playoff.
18 Clemson Tigers (-9) The Tigers lose a heartbreaker to South Carolina and tumble in the rankings due to the other teams ranked #9-#18 all winning and this cluster being separated by only 3 points in my rankings (same difference as between #1 Oregon and #2 Texas, and #18 Clemson and #19 Duke). Clemson still controls their path to the playoff as they get to play SMU in the ACC championship game thanks to Miami losing to Syracuse.
19 Duke Blue Devils (+1) Probably the worst 9-3 team in the country (Wake had a 70% postgame win expectancy), but the Blue Devils have shown that they are on the cusp of joining the top tier of teams in the ACC. There should be a lot of excitement and optimism around this Duke program as they look to secure their first 10-win season since 2013.
20 Illinois Fighting Illini (+1) The Illini take down Northwestern and will finish the season 9-3. Securely at the top of the middle of the B1G, Illinois fans should be optimistic towards the future but a huge gap between still exists between the top of the B1G and the rest.
21 Colorado Buffaloes (+2) Absolutely vaporize the husk of Oklahoma State. Like him or not, Deion Sanders has completely revitalized this Colorado program. The loss to Kansas last week will leave a sour taste and a big "What if?" around the season, but that should not detract from a wildly successful season for the Buffaloes. Travis Hunter likely secured his Heisman trophy this week and the future looks bright for Colorado.
22 Syracuse Orange (+6) After going down 21-0 against Miami, the Orange rallied to stun the Hurricanes. Fran Brown has this 'Cuse team completely turned around and the future looks bright for the Orange.
23 Missouri Tigers (+2) Weird season with lots of ups and downs for the Tigers, but a chance for a 10-win season is never a bad thing.
24 Army West Point (+2) Army is 10-1 and has a chance to get their first 12-win season ever. They get Tulane in the AAC Championship game next and if Boise loses to UNLV, could sneak into the last auto-bid spot for the playoff. What a season for the Black Knights.
25 Memphis Tigers (+4) Memphis has kind of lurked in the shadows for most of the year, but they made a statement by taking down Tulane in the last game of the season. Despite this win the Tigers will just miss out on the AAC Championship game, but they should be proud of a 10-win campaign and a lot of momentum going into the off-season.

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