Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 8:45 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Iowa, Kansas dropped out.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	+1
2	Texas Longhorns	+2
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	-2
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	+1
5	Georgia Bulldogs	-2
6	Tennessee Volunteers	+2
7	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	no change
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	+4
9	SMU Mustangs	+5
10	Ole Miss Rebels	-1
11	Miami Hurricanes	-1
12	Indiana Hoosiers	-1
13	Tulane Green Wave	-7, I think still overrated by the model but we'll see how the conference championship goes.
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	+1
15	Clemson Tigers	-2
16	Michigan Wolverines	+1, look I'd normally drop a 5-loss team (and #16 is way too high) but that OSU win was one of the best of the year. Instant classic, congrats Michigan!
17	Texas A&M Aggies	-1
18	Iowa State Cyclones	no change
19	Louisville Cardinals	no change
20	Arizona State Sun Devils	+13
21	Boise State Broncos	no change
22	LSU Tigers	+3
23	Army West Point	+12
24	Kansas State Wildcats	+3
25	UNLV Rebels	-6, forced in over USC

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.00
2	Texas Longhorns	0.00
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.86
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
5	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
6	Tennessee Volunteers	0.16
7	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.65
8	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.82
9	SMU Mustangs	-0.36
10	Ole Miss Rebels	0.83
11	Miami Hurricanes	0.33
12	Indiana Hoosiers	-1.25
13	Tulane Green Wave	9.31
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.00
15	Clemson Tigers	0.47
16	Michigan Wolverines	9.09
17	Texas A&M Aggies	3.90
18	Iowa State Cyclones	-0.45
19	Louisville Cardinals	2.52
20	Arizona State Sun Devils	-1.67
21	Boise State Broncos	-2.52
22	LSU Tigers	2.38
23	Army West Point	0.00
24	Kansas State Wildcats	0.83
25	UNLV Rebels	-0.60

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
BYU Cougars	2.56
Colorado Buffaloes	0.87
Illinois Fighting Illini	0.80
Syracuse Orange	0.44
Memphis Tigers	0.16
Missouri Tigers	0.40

Total Score: 44.24