Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 11:57 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oregon Ducks	21.008 (12-0)
2	Boise State Broncos	10.973 (11-1)
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	2.483 (10-2)
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	2.319 (11-1)
5	Indiana Hoosiers	2.215 (11-1)
6	Texas Longhorns	2.075 (11-1)
7	Georgia Bulldogs	1.824 (10-2)
8	SMU Mustangs	1.823 (11-1)
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.689 (11-1)
10	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.568 (9-3)
11	Tennessee Volunteers	1.461 (10-2)
12	BYU Cougars	1.433 (10-2)
13	Michigan Wolverines	1.418 (7-5)
14	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.400 (9-3)
15	South Carolina Gamecocks	1.344 (9-3)
16	Miami Hurricanes	1.332 (10-2)
17	Iowa State Cyclones	1.284 (10-2)
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	1.188 (10-2)
19	Ole Miss Rebels	1.167 (9-3)
20	LSU Tigers	1.152 (8-4)
21	Texas A&M Aggies	1.112 (8-4)
22	Louisville Cardinals	1.090 (8-4)
23	UNLV Rebels	1.090 (10-2)
24	Missouri Tigers	1.089 (9-3)
25	Clemson Tigers	1.076 (9-3)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oregon Ducks	0.00
2	Boise State Broncos	1.33
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.86
4	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
5	Indiana Hoosiers	0.69
6	Texas Longhorns	-2.52
7	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
8	SMU Mustangs	0.00
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1.64
10	Illinois Fighting Illini	3.67
11	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
12	BYU Cougars	0.60
13	Michigan Wolverines	12.09
14	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
15	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.00
16	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
17	Iowa State Cyclones	-0.09
18	Arizona State Sun Devils	-1.03
19	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.31
20	LSU Tigers	4.30
21	Texas A&M Aggies	1.49
22	Louisville Cardinals	0.80
23	UNLV Rebels	-0.02
24	Missouri Tigers	0.00
25	Clemson Tigers	-1.16

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Army West Point	0.40
Colorado Buffaloes	0.87
Syracuse Orange	0.44
Memphis Tigers	0.16

Total Score: 34.46