Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 12:03 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 15 notes: not as much chaos as week 13, but still enough! Deservedness keeping highly-rated 3- loss teams such as Alabama and Ole Miss behind 1- loss Army; 3-loss teams such as Clemson and Illinois can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Texas/#9 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | +0. Not overreacting to loss - close loss to #1 on the road and a close loss to the biggest rival is more than other teams such as Georgia can say. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Boise State in the first round |
3 | Penn State Nittany Lions | +0. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Iowa State State in the first round |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | +0. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Tennessee in the Sugar Bowl |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | +0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Tennessee in the first round |
6 | Texas Longhorns | +0. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Notre Dame in the first round |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +0. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Texas in the first round |
8 | SMU Mustangs | +0. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 Iowa State in the Peach Bowl |
9 | Tennessee Volunteers | +1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Indiana in the first round |
10 | Arizona State Sun Devils | +2. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl |
11 | Iowa State Cyclones | +3. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round |
12 | Miami Hurricanes | -3 |
13 | BYU Cougars | +0 |
14 | Boise State Broncos | +1. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Boise State such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Boise State. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round |
15 | Clemson Tigers | -4. Loss allowance over Army |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | +0. Loss allowance over Army |
17 | Colorado Buffaloes | +1. Loss allowance over Army |
18 | UNLV Rebels | +1. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over UNLV such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army. Loss allowance over Army |
19 | TCU Horned Frogs | +1. Teams rated above TCU such as Alabama blocked by 1-loss teams such as Army. Loss allowances over Army, Memphis, Louisiana, and Liberty |
20 | Army West Point | +2. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army |
21 | Alabama Crimson Tide | +2. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army |
22 | Florida Gators | NEW. Loss allowances over Memphis, Louisiana, Liberty, Missouri, Syracuse, Duke, Tulane, Washington State, JMU, Navy, Marshall, Ohio, and Sam Houston. Similar to TCU, teams rated above Florida such as Texas A&M blocked by 2-loss teams such as Memphis. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Florida from being ranked ahead of Army |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Ole Miss from being ranked ahead of Army |
24 | South Carolina Gamecocks | NEW. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 3+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as South Carolina from being ranked ahead of Army |
25 | Louisville Cardinals | NEW. Loss allowances over Louisiana, Memphis, and Liberty. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 4+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Louisville from being ranked ahead of Army. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 4+ loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Kansas State from being ranked ahead of Army. Next 11: Kansas State, LSU, Iowa, Missouri, Baylor, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Duke, Memphis, Tulane, Louisiana, Texas A&M |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1.24 |
3 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.20 |
5 | Indiana Hoosiers | 0.69 |
6 | Texas Longhorns | -2.52 |
7 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -0.65 |
8 | SMU Mustangs | 0.00 |
9 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
10 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 0.04 |
11 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.61 |
12 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
13 | BYU Cougars | 0.26 |
14 | Boise State Broncos | -0.54 |
15 | Clemson Tigers | 0.47 |
16 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.43 |
17 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.75 |
18 | UNLV Rebels | 0.00 |
19 | TCU Horned Frogs | 6.23 |
20 | Army West Point | 0.00 |
21 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1.17 |
22 | Florida Gators | 3.11 |
23 | Ole Miss Rebels | -1.48 |
24 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -2.75 |
25 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Syracuse Orange | 0.44 |
Memphis Tigers | 0.16 |
Missouri Tigers | 0.40 |
Total Score: 25.14