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Due_Connection179 Ballot for 2024 Week 15

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 4:12 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome to Championship Week! I have updated my rankings for the CFP format. So you will see the top 4 conference (projected) champs as my top 4 then the 5th by #12. After watching the games this week, I went back and looked at everyone's schedules, their Strength of Record, and how they looked vs each strength level of team (top 10, top 25, top 50, Bowl Team, non-bowl teams).

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks B1G Championship vs #6 Penn State // No surprise here. My preseason pick to win the Championship has been the best team in the country since the opening week hiccup. Even if they lose, they would only drop to #5 ahead of Notre Dame.
2 Texas Longhorns SEC Championship vs #7 Georgia // Texas fans should not really be happy (just yet) about being #2. They still have to beat Georgia who bullied them at Texas, but either way, the worst I could see them falling is just swapping with Georgia at #7.
3 SMU Mustangs ACC Championship vs #20 Clemson // With Miami losing to Syracuse, I'm officially on the SMU bandwagon. I would love nothing more than for FSU to bash the SMU addition, only for the Mustangs to somehow win the CFP Championship in their 1st ACC season. Their CFP hopes get dicey if they lose to Clemson, but I don't see them falling behind Indiana, so they should be locked into the CFP.
4 Boise State Broncos MW Championship vs #24 UNLV // This is the first Conference Championship Game that is "Win and In" or "Lose and Go Home". With Army's blow out loss vs Notre Dame, I believe UNLV has passed them, so either the Broncos will enter at #4 or UNLV will steal their spot at #12.
5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish "Worst Case" for Notre Dame is that Oregon loses and they get pushed down to #6. So, as of now, I have Notre Dame playing either #11 South Carolina (or Alabama because the CFP committee will probably pick them) or #12 Arizona State (or Iowa State).
6 Penn State Nittany Lions B1G Championship vs #1 Oregon // I fully believe that Penn State has locked up a CFP spot, and with Ohio State's loss to Michigan, I don't really see any way for them to drop spots if they keep it close. Maybe they drop to #7 if Georgia beats Texas, but right now with Indiana at #10, I think the committee will keep it non-conference games only for the 1st round and give us #6 Penn State vs #11 South Carolina (or Alabama).
7 Georgia Bulldogs SEC Championship vs #2 Texas // If Georgia wins, they will more-than-likely enter the CFP at #2 because I think the committee would put the B1G winner (Oregon at 13 - 0 or Penn State at 12 - 1) over them. If Georgia loses, the worst they could drop is 1 spot, but (like Penn State) I don't think this happens to keep them with a non-conference 1st round game vs #10 Indiana.
8 Ohio State Buckeyes Ranking Ohio State at #8 is just a gut feeling for being #10 Indiana earlier. The "worst case" for Ohio State is that the committee thinks that Tennessee deserves the home game over Ohio State after the loss to Michigan, but I feel like either way they will be either #8 or #9 for the 1st round.
9 Tennessee Volunteers I think Tennessee fans are feeling good going into the CFP. They will either host against Ohio State or Indiana, or they will be on the road against Ohio State where they just lost to Michigan.
10 Indiana Hoosiers I feel like Indiana fans should feel amazing about possibly playing Georgia in the 1st round. Indiana basically has an upgraded version of Georgia Tech's offense, so watching Georgia's defense struggle against them should have the Hoosiers in good thoughts going into the CFP.
11 South Carolina Gamecocks This is my controversial pick for the CFP, and I'm using Miami as the buffer team. Yes, Alabama has the H2H over South Carolina with the same record, but South Carolina is playing as good as anyone going into the CFP and I believe South Carolina would win the rematch if it happened again this week (plus Alabama has 2 losses to 6-win teams).
12 Arizona State Sun Devils Big XII Championship vs #16 Iowa State // Rounding out my CFP predictions is Arizona State. I have the Big 12 Champ as the #12 team heading into the CFP (unless Boise State or SMU lose). Arizona State has been playing amazing football the last couple of weeks, and I think a first round game vs Notre Dame would be electric.
13 Miami Hurricanes We had a 21 - 0 lead barely into the 2nd quarter and we lost. Our offense is clearly championship caliber, but if our offense was as good as our defense, then we might not even be a bowl team. I don't expect the CFP committee to keep us in the playoffs after this loss, but I refuse to put us under Alabama or Ole Miss because of the quality of each team's losses.
14 Alabama Crimson Tide I understand that the committee will probably bail out Alabama once again, but they truly don't deserve it this season with losses to 6 - 6 Oklahoma (blow out) and 6 - 6 Vanderbilt. It's crazy to think that Alabama might miss out on a 12-team playoff, but I guess we all expected too much from the first Saban-less Alabama team in 2 decades.
15 Ole Miss Rebels 0% chance for CFP
16 Iowa State Cyclones Big XII Championship vs #12 Arizona State // The only thing that should matter to Iowa State is that if they win then they make the CFP. It's been a crazy run so far this season, but they need to finish the job next week to truly call this a successful season.
17 BYU Cougars 0% chance for CFP
18 Illinois Fighting Illini 0% chance for CFP
19 Colorado Buffaloes 0% chance for CFP
20 Clemson Tigers ACC Championship vs #3 SMU // Talk about a team that just won't die. 31-point loss to Georgia week 1, then climbed back up to #15. Blow out loss to Louisville, then climbed back up to #13. Loss at home to rivals South Carolina, then still has a chance to win the ACC and make the CFP.
21 Syracuse Orange 0% chance for CFP
22 Missouri Tigers 0% chance for CFP
23 Duke Blue Devils 0% chance for CFP
24 UNLV Rebels MW Championship vs #4 Boise State // Crazy to think that UNLV can make the CFP, but if they beat Boise State, they should be the #12 team headed into the playoffs.
25 Army West Point American Championship vs Tulane // What is more fitting than an American Championship involving Army? Tulane pretty much screwed the American out of a CFP spot, but I think 3 things need to happen for Army to make the CFP. First, Army needs to win by at least 30 against Tulane. Second, UNLV needs to beat Boise State by less than a TD. Third, Penn State needs to beat Oregon by 10 or less, which would cause Oregon to drop to #5 and Notre Dame to #6. I don't think the CFP committee would want to see Army vs Notre Dame again, but there's a chance if these events happen, that the committee would okay a game vs Army and Oregon.

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