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big_thunder_man Ballot for 2024 Week 15

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 4:50 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Judging mostly off whole season's record, plus momentum, plus expected head to head record.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks [12-0] Beat Washington. Undisputed best resume -- marquee wins over Ohio State and Boise State, with quality wins over Illinois and Michigan.
2 Texas Longhorns [11-1] Beat Texas A&M. Clearly the number two. They've beaten LOTS of B+ teams (TAMU, Oklahoma) and B- teams (Michigan, Florida).
3 SMU Mustangs [11-1] Beat Cal. Great wins over Duke, Pitt, TCU; and other bowl eligibles (Boston College, Louisville). If they beat Clemson in the AAC title it's undeniable, but I think if you put their resume blindly against Indiana or Penn State, it has more wins over bowl eligible teams, and overall bigger wins (Duke / Pitt specifically).
4 Georgia Bulldogs [10-2] Beat Georgia Tech. Incredible game, but it shouldn't have been close. and other games (Kentucky, Florida, Massachusetts for a half?) shouldn't have been close. Great wins over Texas, Clemson, and Tennessee, but this is a beatable team.
5 Indiana Hoosiers [11-1] Beat Purdue. Undoubtedly a top 5 team. They run up the margin of victory, but they have played very few significant teams. I have questions about their offensive line vs an SEC defensive line, and I don't think their WRs have the speed to break open. But the record is incredible, and their margins are wide open.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions [11-1] Beat Maryland. They (terrible team). Also lost an extremely winnable game against Ohio State. Why are they lower than Indiana? Because, on the whole, I feel like their margin of victory against mediocre teams was closer (barely beating Minnesota, USC, Illinois?) and offensive efficiency lags behind.
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish [11-1] Beat USC. Looking at their schedule: Texas A&M and Louisville are their best wins, the service academies are gimmies, and who else? Miami of Ohio? They beat a 7 loss Virginia. A 5 loss Georgia Tech. An 11 loss Florida State. This is a team that is going to get walloped by Indiana or Georgia in round 1 of the playoffs, and we're going to act shocked. Not me.
8 Arizona State Sun Devils [10-2] Beat Arizona. Probably the best team we're not talking about? Wins over Kansas State, Texas Tech, and BYU. Beat Wyoming (point of comparison vs Boise). Skattebo is a Sunday runner. Team loves their head coach.
9 Ohio State Buckeyes [10-2] Lost to Michigan. Look, I'm not mad that Chip Kelly has infected Ohio State with his lethargic, run heavy and short passing offense, but I am disappointed. And it feels like Ryan Day is losing the program? The vibes are off. Not playing the B1G championship is the best thing that has happened to this team.
10 Boise State Broncos [11-1] Beat Oregon State. In dropped them relative to other teams. We've perhaps over-rewarded them for playing Oregon close a week after Oregon barely escaped Idaho. Oregon's not the same team. And this is a team that BARELY escaped UNLV, Nevada, Wyoming, and was (temporarily) in the mud vs Oregon State. This is a sell, and they are on upset alert in the MW title vs UNLV.
11 Miami Hurricanes [10-2] Lost to Syracuse. We've been saying it all season: all gas, no breaks, they were going to crash. They lost this shootout, but they should have lost others. Like SMU, a Duke and Louisville win are the highlights of their schedule.
12 Iowa State Cyclones [10-2] Beat Kansas State. Just a note: they won 10 games for the first time in 133 years, and they should have won 12. Best win of the season is Baylor, and the fluky losses were to a hot team (Kansas), and an eight win Texas Tech. All of their victories besides Baylor were too close, and they lack a great "it" on the team. This isn't an F5 category storm, but they are tough.
13 Tennessee Volunteers [10-2] Beat Vanderbilt. Best win of the season was Alabama. But outside of that? NC State? A 6 win Florida? Oklahoma? Giving me Indiana vibes, except for an additional inexplicable loss (Arkansas.
14 BYU Cougars [10-2] Beat Houston. Game was uglier, and closer, than the final score indicated. Houston lost the game, BYU didn't win. Best wins are Kansas State and Baylor but all their troubles were after that. Shouldn't be a bubble playoff team. THIS IS THE PLAYOFF CONTENTION LINE (IMO).
15 Alabama Crimson Tide [9-3] Beat Auburn. They have the single most impressive win of the 9-3 (or worse) teams over Georgia, and has a head v head over South Carolina and Missouri. Playoff bubble, but the brand (and Kalen DeBore's reputation) is doing the heavy lifting.
16 Colorado Buffaloes [9-3] Beat Oklahoma St. The epitome of an anything can happen team. Hunter is overrated, playing two positions slightly above average?, but his drive and guts are hella impressive. It's hard to picture a 9 or 8 win team I could imagine beating them. Alabama. Baylor. Maybe South Carolina?
17 Ole Miss Rebels [9-3] Beat Miss St. Great wins vs Georgia and South Carolina, Losses to LSU? and Florida. Thankfully for Lane Kiffen, they are undefeated in hypothetical games.
18 South Carolina Gamecocks [9-3] Beat Clemson. Also has wins over TAMU, Mezzo, and Oklahoma, but other inexplicable losses. This part of the rankings feels very arbitrary.
19 Syracuse Orange [9-3] Beat Miami! Unfortunately, they have 3 ugly losses, but the wins over UConn (??!) and UNLV are aging very well.
20 Baylor Bears [8-4] Beat Kansas. Doesn't sound impressive until you consider Kansas had JUST beat three ranked teams. Baylor's QB is top 5 in the country in QBR, and once they figured out their rushing attack, it's now averaging over 200 yards per game. Two losses were on fluky plays to top teams (Colorado and BYU). Plus on a blazing 6 game win streak. Quietly the hottest team in the country.
21 Clemson Tigers [9-3] Lost to South Carolina. Has a marquee win against.... and..... even.... I guess Pitt. But everyone else they played was underwhelming, and they lost what were clearly the three best teams they played against (Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina).
22 Duke Blue Devils [9-3] Beat Wake Forest. Devils vs Deacons is underrated as a rivalry name. Like Clemson, lack a great marquee win.
23 Illinois Fighting Illini [9-3] Beat Northwestern. And Nebraska, and Michigan, and a bunch of bad teams. But they beat them. Except for the ones they lost two (two of which are in the top 5). So not bad. Kudos, Illini!
24 Missouri Tigers [9-3] Beat Arkansas. Hard to impressed with their schedule and wins, but they, like Illinois got 9 of them. Nice.
25 UNLV Rebels [10-2] Lost to Syracuse and Boise (by less than a score each), but otherwise ran the table. Getting a rematch vs Boise.

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