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hurricaneatx Ballot for 2024 Week 15

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2024, 10:58 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Blend of power/resume-thinking, but gets more resume-based later in the season. I don't really care if a team moves drastically week-to-week. I am a fan of the Texas Longhorns. Head-to-head matchups matter when comparing similar records, but lose significance the earlier they are and the farther separated the teams are. [Teams in the ranking suburbs: Texas A&M, Duke, Kansas State, Tulane, LSU] [Teams in the ranking exurbs: Louisville, Texas Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida, Baylor, Georgia Tech]

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks (12-0) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - The sole undefeated team following the end of the regular season, Oregon stands alone at #1. No team in the country has looked truly dominant week-to-week, and Oregon has certainly had their close shaves throughout the season, but they've managed to take care of business in each game, including against strong competition at points in the season. That's something no other team can say. Quality wins: Boise State, Ohio State, Illinois
2 Texas Longhorns (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - While Texas' schedule has been more favorable than other SEC teams in contention, the Longhorns managed to avoid the pitfall of losing to the conference's mid- to lower-tier squads, which has been a thorn in the conference's playoff bid. The heart of this team is its defense, which ranks in totality as among the best in the nation. I have Texas slotted slightly ahead of Penn State given their marginally better strength of record and strength of schedule, but they could be interchangeable. While the Longhorns schedule has certainly been questioned, enough chaos occurred at the top of the rankings in the last 2 weeks for me to consider them a playoff lock regardless of the outcome of the conference championship they've played themselves into. Quality wins: Florida, @Texas A&M
3 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - Penn State finds itself, surprisingly, in the B1G Championship Game following the upset in The Game. Penn State has shown elements of its usual fare under James Franklin's head coaching tenure, but have also had a few closer games against lesser competition than one would typically expect of the Nittany Lions, such as against Minnesota recently and Bowling Green earlier in the year. My quality win listing for them isn't too robust, but the Nittany Lions have avoided bad losses. Quality wins: Illinois
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - After losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2, Notre Dame had zero margin for error. In my estimation, any additional loss would probably kick them out of the top 12 and somewhere in the Alabama/Ole Miss fuzz zone. The Fighting Irish didn't exactly have a great schedule and were picked early to go undefeated after clearing their greatest test on paper (Texas A&M) anyways, but they do have at least some decent wins to bolster their resume and allow them to be ranked fairly highly and be a lock for the playoffs despite bearing the worst loss (86th FPI!) of any team in this region of the rankings. That loss does hold some sway, so I have the Fighting Irish still ranked behind some of the other 11-1 teams. Quality wins: @Texas A&M, Louisville, Army
5 Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - Questions are certainly demanded of the Bulldogs after escaping their own stadium with 8 overtime periods against Georgia Tech. The high strength of their top victories this year is sufficient for Georgia to make it into the playoff regardless of the result in the SEC Championship game, but sheesh, they could have easily lost in regulation to the Yellow Jackets, and I probably would have plucked the Bulldogs out of the top 12 had that happened. Still, being 10-2 and having a very strong strength of schedule is a pretty good result. Quality wins: Clemson, @Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia Tech
6 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - Ohio State was demonstrably better than Indiana, and followed that up with an absolutely dismal performance at home against Michigan that has ignited Ryan Day's coaching seat among the Buckeye faithful. Despite losing to a very milquetoast Michigan squad, I can't drop Ohio State very far - as much as I'd like to - given that they do have wins at Penn State and Indiana on their resume. The extra loss made me consider whether I want to drop Ohio State below Indiana, but the strong and very recent head-to-head over the Hoosiers gives them a backsplash. The strong wins should buoy Ohio State into the playoffs. Quality wins: @Penn State, Indiana
7 Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, their schedule has been the target of much criticism in the strength department. Fortunately, I think they've definitely done enough for me to lock them in to the playoff, if I had my way. Their resume reads off much like a Penn State of various yesteryears, blasting away much of the competition and then being competitive/losing against strong rosters. Quality wins: N/A
8 SMU Mustangs (11-1) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - After losing a close match to BYU early in the year, well before either team was anywhere near playoff contention, SMU has rattled off 9 consecutive victories. SMU vs. Clemson is going to a firecracker of a game. I think SMU should be in the playoff regardless of the outcome, but will the committee respect that? A stinker to Clemson and a loss of playoff entrance to an at-large team is something the Mustangs definitely don't want to chance. Quality wins: @Louisville, @Duke
9 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) - ✅ 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 - Tennessee is fairly close to the blob of SEC teams outside the playoff at-large space, but are helped by their win against Alabama and the loss to Arkansas being back in early October, even though their non-conference schedule looks absolutely dreadful now. Quality wins: Florida, Alabama
10 Boise State Broncos (11-1) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - Boise State has managed to, at least so far, avoid the random loss to a middling opponent that has so often eliminated them from contention in years past. Beating UNLV for a second time this season will punch their ticket into the playoffs where they have an opportunity to showcase Ashton Jeanty to a nationwide audience. Quality wins: @UNLV
11 Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - Arizona State is peaking at the right time, and suddenly, the team that was picked to finish last in the Big 12 has the opportunity to win the conference in their first year and make it into the playoffs. Caution is advised: the Sun Devils can chalk the Cincinnati loss to an injured Sam Leavitt, but it does not appear that the committee will be respecting ASU against the SEC playoff fringe teams. Quality wins: @Kansas State, BYU
12 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) - Alabama has a very good slate of quality wins, and did well to win against Auburn to keep their playoff hopes alive. Problem is, losing squarely to Vanderbilt and getting absolutely crushed by Oklahoma are terrible looks, and they wouldn't be in the playoff if it were up to me. Quality wins: Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, @LSU
13 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) - South Carolina is making a last minute bid for the playoff, but in my estimation with three losses it won't be enough to into the pool of at-large teams. Still, they can hang their hat on winning the Palmetto Bowl and putting together a pretty good season. I have the Gamecocks ranked behind Alabama given the head-to-head loss earlier in the year and the comparable strength of record. Quality wins: Texas A&M, @Missouri, @Clemson
14 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) - Having Ole Miss at #14 doesn't make me too happy, considering their losses have been collectively bad, including their recent loss against (an albeit resurgent) Florida. That said, they did defeat Georgia and were the only team to put a tight lid on South Carolina, so maybe having them be a mid-grade team in the #10s isn't so bad after all. Quality wins: @South Carolina, Georgia
15 Miami Hurricanes (10-2) - It's an often used trope, but it's not hard to imagine Miami being a 7-5 team and unranked right now. Cam Ward has been excellent at the helm, but November has not been kind. The Hurricanes now have 2 losses in their last 3 games, knocking them out of the ACC title race and in all likelihood the playoff as well. Miami downtrended pretty hard as of late, and their close wins have not looked very convincing, so I'm dropping them a bit severely despite them having 10 wins. Quality wins: @Florida, @Louisville, Duke
16 BYU Cougars (10-2) - It's easy to imagine what could have been for the Cougars, who lost two very much winnable games and could have been undefeated and virtually a lock for the playoff. Quality wins: @SMU, Kansas State, @Baylor
17 Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - Although things looked pretty bleak after losing in convincing fashion to Kansas, Iowa State still has an opportunity to make it into the playoffs. Farmaggeddon was their best win of the season. Congratulations on the 10 win regular season! Quality wins: Baylor, Kansas State
18 Army West Point (10-1) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - If Army were to win against Tulane and Boise State were to lose (probably the least likely outcome), I'd have to think about whether UNLV should be ranked ahead of Army. I'm thinking at the moment that UNLV would be higher ranked in that scenario, but I'm not 100% on that boat yet, so I'm still flagging Army as playoff possible in my book. Quality wins: N/A
19 Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) - Last year's Colorado team had much more eyes on it, but this year's Colorado team has done far better. Eviscerating Oklahoma State in a battle of new versus old guard is a great way to end their regular season. Colorado managed to avoid additional confrontations with the upper tier of the Big 12, so ultimately their top wins aren't too shiny and keep the Buffaloes from rising too much in the rankings. Deion in the playoffs might have been crazy to witness, but the Buffaloes will be idling while the Big 12 Conference Championship plays out. Quality wins: Baylor, @Texas Tech
20 Clemson Tigers (9-3) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - Clemson's strongest win is... Pittsburgh or Virginia Tech possibly? That's not a great resume. Quality wins: N/A
21 Syracuse Orange (9-3) - The citrus fruits of upstate New York have some questionable losses (possibly the most of any team I have ranked), but I did have them ranked last week on account of their earlier win over UNLV and they demonstrated that they deserve to get a shout in the top 25 with a great win over fan unfavorite Miami. Quality wins: Georgia Tech, @UNLV, Miami
22 UNLV Rebels (10-2) - 🔓 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 - UNLV has an opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to Boise State and sneak into the playoffs as the fifth highest ranked conference champion. UNLV used to be a good shout for "why can't this team be any better given resources", so it's great seeing Barry Odom lead the Rebels to a 10-win season and be within striking distance of the playoff. I had the Rebels just outside of the top 25 last week, but Syracuse rising higher in my rankings reels the Rebels into the top 25. A quality loss for a MWC team? Say it isn't so! Quality wins: N/A
23 Missouri Tigers (9-3) - Missouri is kind of here by default. They have a good strength of record that keeps them ahead of other teams that could be in this position, but their resume doesn't really stand out anywhere. It's a bit disappointing for a team that entered the season with playoff aspirations, but that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes. Quality wins: N/A
24 Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) - Illinois is a solid team. Their loss to a pesky Minnesota team that has caused some other conference teams mild troubles does sting, but being 5th in this year's B1G is a decent showing. Quality wins: N/A
25 Memphis Tigers (10-2) - Memphis has always been a strong non-P4 team and have hung around in my ranking shortlist for a while, so I'm happy to have them finally in the top 25 after a good win at Tulane. Tigers fans aren't probably too chuffed to have dropped games to Navy and UTSA earlier in the year, though. Quality wins: @Tulane

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