Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 13, 2023, 7:02 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Ole Miss, Fresno State, Oklahoma State dropped out.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	+4
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	+4
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	-2
4	Michigan Wolverines	-1
5	Washington Huskies	-5 according to model but manually moved up because they keep winning
6	Oregon Ducks	-5
7	Florida State Seminoles	+4
8	Oklahoma Sooners	+5, moved down from 5 because of 2 losses
9	Texas Longhorns	+2
10	Kansas State Wildcats	+1
11	LSU Tigers	-1, moved down from 4 because of 3 losses
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	-4
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	+2
14	Oregon State Beavers	+3
15	Missouri Tigers	no change
16	Tennessee Volunteers	-4 and moved further from 14 to below Mizzou because Mizzou just beat them
17	James Madison Dukes	+6
18	Louisville Cardinals	-7, almost lost to UVA and the model is penalizing them for it
19	North Carolina Tar Heels	-3
20	SMU Mustangs	+4, manually moved down to be below P5 2-loss teams
21	Troy Trojans	+12, manually moved down to be below P5 2-loss teams
22	Arizona Wildcats	no change
23	Utah Utes
24	Clemson Tigers	+3 but moved down from 18 because they still have 4 losses
25	Liberty Flames	+8

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	2.72
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Washington Huskies	0.00
6	Oregon Ducks	0.00
7	Florida State Seminoles	-1.19
8	Oklahoma Sooners	1.36
9	Texas Longhorns	-0.36
10	Kansas State Wildcats	2.28
11	LSU Tigers	0.96
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.33
14	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
15	Missouri Tigers	-0.51
16	Tennessee Volunteers	1.58
17	James Madison Dukes	0.00
18	Louisville Cardinals	-2.46
19	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
20	SMU Mustangs	4.64
21	Troy Trojans	3.62
22	Arizona Wildcats	0.00
23	Utah Utes	-0.51
24	Clemson Tigers	1.11
25	Liberty Flames	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Ole Miss Rebels	3.76
Tulane Green Wave	1.06
Iowa Hawkeyes	0.27

Total Score: 29.72