Back to poll results >>

CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 12

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 13, 2023, 1:08 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 42.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 4 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). Alabama moves into the top spot and has the most impressive resume to date.
2 Washington Huskies 42.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). 2 SP+ T-25 wins (USC, Utah). Washington took down the Utes and jumped Ohio State for the #2 spot this week.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 39.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Penn State). 1 SP+ T-25 win (Notre Dame). The Buckeyes only gained 0.5 points this week after beating Michigan State. The reason for this is because three of the teams Ohio State beat earlier in the season have dropped in SP+ (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Rutgers). It won't matter in a couple weeks, though, if the Buckeyes can beat Michigan.
4 Georgia Bulldogs 37.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Missouri, Ole Miss). Georgia appears to be rounding into form. They're probably the best team in the country. If they can stay blemish-free before they take on Alabama in Atlanta, they'll likely secure their spot in the playoff, even with a loss to Bama.
5 Florida State Seminoles 36.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson). If Alabama wins out, who gets that last spot in the playoff (assuming Bama, UGA, and the Big Ten champ are in). It's looking more and more likely that an undefeated P5 champ will get left out. I guess it's a good thing the playoff is expanding next season.
6 Texas Longhorns 36.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Oklahoma). The Longhorns round out what looks like the top tier in this model - seven points separates Texas from the Michigan Wolverines.
7 Michigan Wolverines 29.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Penn State). Michigan finally got that quality win by handling Penn State. They still have a fairly easy schedule up to this point compared to the teams ahead of them in this model, hence the #7 ranking.
8 Oregon Ducks 28.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Utah, USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington).
9 Ole Miss Rebels 27.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Texas A&M). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Alabama, Georgia).
10 Missouri Tigers 26.0 pts. 0 SP + T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kansas State, Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU). Missouri outclassed the Tennessee Vols this week and earned another T-25 win and a spot in the Top 10.
11 Utah Utes 23.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (UCLA, USC). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Washington, Oregon). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oregon State).
12 Oklahoma Sooners 22.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). 2 SP+ T-50 losses (Kansas, Oklahoma State).
13 Liberty Flames 20.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins.
14 James Madison Dukes 19.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins.
15 LSU Tigers 18.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Missouri). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Florida State, Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss). LSU may not have a championship-caliber team this year, but Jayden Daniels deserves to win the Heisman. Give the man his flowers.
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 17.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Louisville, Clemson).
17 Louisville Cardinals 17.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Notre Dame). 1 FBS loss (Pittsburgh). Here's where I would typically get people griping about my rankings. "How crazy do you have to be to put Notre Dame ahead of Louisville when Louisville beat them?" That's easy. Technically, Notre Dame and Louisville are tied, but SP+ thinks Notre Dame is a better team, so that's why Notre Dame is ahead. But, if you compare overall resumes, I think it's fair to rank them lower than Notre Dame since Louisville has a worse loss.
18 Penn State Nittany Lions 16.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Ohio State, Michigan). Poor James Franklin.
19 Arizona Wildcats 15.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Oregon State, UCLA). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (USC). 1 FBS loss (Mississippi State).
20 Tennessee Volunteers 14.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Texas A&M). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Missouri). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida). When your best win is against a team that fired its coach after winning by 41, it's not looking good for you.
21 Kansas Jayhawks 14.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oklahoma). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). 2 SP+ T-50 losses (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech).
22 Oregon State Beavers 12.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Utah, UCLA). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Arizona). 1 FBS loss (Washington State). And they finish their season by playing Washington and Oregon. Ouch!
23 Iowa Hawkeyes 12.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). 1 FBS loss (Minnesota). Iowa just won't go away. Iowa fell out of the Top 25 in Week 5. Re-entered the very next week. Made it to the Top 10 in Week 7. It fell out again in Week 8 only to make its way back in the next ranking. Dropped out again in Week 10 and then climbed their way back in Week 11. No hate to the Hawkeyes, I'm just surprised they're sticking around this long.
24 Duke Blue Devils 11.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Clemson). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Florida State). 3 SP+ T-25 losses (Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina).
25 NC State Wolfpack 10.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Clemson). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Notre Dame, Louisville). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Duke).

Back to poll results >>