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hurricaneatx Ballot for 2023 Week 12

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 12, 2023, 8:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: "Once is a mistake, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern." Like most human rankings, this is a blend of both a power ranking (reasoning whether higher ranked teams would beat lower ranked teams a majority of the time on a neutral field) and resume ranking (reasoning whether higher ranked teams have proven themselves against competition). The most recent head-to-head results are important, but lose influence the further removed they are from the present. Results against common competition are a useful gauge, but are often not reliable tools to gauge the gap between teams. I don't put much importance in the specific ranking of a team, so teams of similar strengths can be bit "liquid" and move around the poll a bit. Admittedly, I am quite busy, so I don't watch many individual games. I am a Texas Longhorns fan, which could influence my perception. I think analytics like ESPN's FPI efficiencies and strength of record can be useful aids to identify fringe teams whose records don't jump of the page, but have demonstrated success and deserve a shout in a top 25 poll. [Teams in the ranking suburbs (no particular order): North Carolina, Kansas State, Toledo, Miami (OH), SMU] (Teams in the ranking exurbs (no particular order): Air Force, Fresno State, USC, UNLV, Duke, Troy, Memphis, NC State, UCLA, Ohio)

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs (10-0) - Quality wins: Missouri, Ole Miss
2 Michigan Wolverines (10-0) - Quality wins: @Penn State
3 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) - Quality wins: @Notre Dame, Penn State
4 Washington Huskies (10-0) - Quality wins: @Arizona, Oregon, @USC, Utah
5 Florida State Seminoles (10-0) - Quality wins: LSU, Duke
6 Oregon Ducks (9-1) - Quality wins: @Utah, USC
7 Texas Longhorns (9-1) - Quality wins: @Alabama, Kansas, Kansas State - The Heart Attack Horns are back at it again. Their win at Alabama is the only thing keeping them ahead of Alabama this week; a pure power rating would probably have Texas behind.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) - Quality wins: Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU
9 Louisville Cardinals (9-1) - Quality wins: Notre Dame, NC State, Duke
10 Oregon State Beavers (8-2) - Quality wins: Utah, UCLA
11 Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) - Quality wins: @Tulane, LSU - Although Georgia is looking elite, getting blown out in the way Ole Miss did is not a good look. Although Penn State kept it closer against Michigan, in sum Ole Miss's winning resume is a little better.
12 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) - Quality wins: Iowa - Penn State is who we think they are. They're very good at being a good team that convincingly beats weaker teams and does badly against stronger teams.
13 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) - Quality wins: Texas
14 LSU Tigers (7-3) - Quality wins: @Missouri
15 Missouri Tigers (8-2) - Quality wins: Kansas State, Memphis, Tennessee
16 Utah Utes (7-3) - Quality wins: UCLA, @USC
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3) - Quality wins: @Duke, USC, @NC State
18 James Madison Dukes (10-0) - Quality wins: Troy - I wonder if I have JMU a bit high, though their win against 8-2 Troy is a decent win and gives them separation from similarly SOS'd Liberty.
19 Tulane Green Wave (9-1) - Quality wins: @Memphis
20 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-2) - Quality wins: N/A - They nearly managed to beat the spread by themselves.
21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3) - Quality wins: Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma - Oklahoma has a great winning resume and an awful losing resume to the likes of getting blown out versus South Alabama and UCF. They're ahead of Kansas on head-to-head but those are some awful loses. Cowboys, what are you doing?
22 Arizona Wildcats (7-3) - Quality wins: Oregon State, UCLA - I've been keeping an eye on Arizona. Their loss to a downtrending USC team had been holding them out of by top 25, but they've strung together some great wins against decent competition with an intriguing matchup against Utah next week.
23 Kansas Jayhawks (7-3) - Quality wins: Oklahoma - Kansas nearly beat Texas Tech with its third stringer in at quarterback. I'd have dropped them out entirely if they lost at full strength, but for now they're nestled towards the back of the top 25.
24 Tennessee Volunteers (7-3) - Quality wins: N/A - I don't get how Tennessee's been ranked so highly this season, though that's probably a result of power rating carrying them over their resume, which is pretty lackluster. The other 3-loss teams ahead of Tennessee have better wins.
25 Liberty Flames (10-0) - Quality wins: N/A - Figuring out to place Liberty is difficult. On the one hand, they're undefeated and have a selection of dominant performances. On the other hand, they have the weakest SOS in all of FBS and haven't beaten anybody with a pulse.

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