Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 13, 2023, 11:57 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 12 notes: Deservedness keeping 2-loss teams such as Penn State and Missouri behind 0-loss teams such as Liberty and 3-loss teams such as Notre Dame and LSU behind 1-loss teams such as Toledo. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have them losing to Michigan in the season finale |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl. I have them beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have FSU in the top four with Michigan, Washington, and Georgia |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl. I have them winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
| 9 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
| 10 |
James Madison Dukes
|
If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl (at-large and not enough 6-6+ bowl-eligible teams) |
| 11 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
| 12 |
Liberty Flames
|
If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl. As the lowest-ranked 0-loss team, they are blocking all of the 2+ loss teams from being ranked ahead of them (Deservedness) |
| 13 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 15 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 17 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 19 |
SMU Mustangs
|
Would be ranked ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
| 21 |
Troy Trojans
|
Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
| 22 |
Memphis Tigers
|
Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
| 23 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
| 24 |
UNLV Rebels
|
Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
| 25 |
Air Force Falcons
|
Next five: Toledo (lowest-ranked 1-loss team and preventing any 3+ loss teams being ranked behind them), Notre Dame, LSU, Kansas State, Arizona (would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.78 |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.28 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.76 |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.55 |
| 11 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.23 |
| 12 |
Liberty Flames
|
1.18 |
| 13 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.11 |
| 15 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.05 |
| 17 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
-0.57 |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.23 |
| 19 |
SMU Mustangs
|
5.64 |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.02 |
| 21 |
Troy Trojans
|
3.62 |
| 22 |
Memphis Tigers
|
3.09 |
| 23 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
2.06 |
| 24 |
UNLV Rebels
|
0.91 |
| 25 |
Air Force Falcons
|
0.13 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
LSU Tigers
|
1.99 |
Utah Utes
|
1.38 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
1.06 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.77 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.36 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.38 |
Total Score: 27.14