Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 13, 2023, 11:57 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 12 notes: Deservedness keeping 2-loss teams such as Penn State and Missouri behind 0-loss teams such as Liberty and 3-loss teams such as Notre Dame and LSU behind 1-loss teams such as Toledo. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
| Rank | Team | Reason | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have them losing to Michigan in the season finale | 
| 2 |  Washington Huskies | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl | 
| 3 |  Michigan Wolverines | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl. I have them beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten | 
| 4 |  Georgia Bulldogs | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have FSU in the top four with Michigan, Washington, and Georgia | 
| 5 |  Florida State Seminoles | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl. I have them winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff | 
| 6 |  Oregon Ducks | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl | 
| 7 |  Texas Longhorns | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl | 
| 8 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl | 
| 9 |  Louisville Cardinals | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl | 
| 10 |  James Madison Dukes | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl (at-large and not enough 6-6+ bowl-eligible teams) | 
| 11 |  Tulane Green Wave | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl | 
| 12 |  Liberty Flames | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl. As the lowest-ranked 0-loss team, they are blocking all of the 2+ loss teams from being ranked ahead of them (Deservedness) | 
| 13 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 14 |  Missouri Tigers | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 15 |  Ole Miss Rebels | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 16 |  Oklahoma Sooners | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 17 |  Oregon State Beavers | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 18 |  North Carolina Tar Heels | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness | 
| 19 |  SMU Mustangs | Would be ranked ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness | 
| 20 |  Iowa Hawkeyes | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness | 
| 21 |  Troy Trojans | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness | 
| 22 |  Memphis Tigers | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness | 
| 23 |  Fresno State Bulldogs | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness | 
| 24 |  UNLV Rebels | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness | 
| 25 |  Air Force Falcons | Next five: Toledo (lowest-ranked 1-loss team and preventing any 3+ loss teams being ranked behind them), Notre Dame, LSU, Kansas State, Arizona (would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness) | 
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.78 | 
| 2 |  Washington Huskies | 0.28 | 
| 3 |  Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 | 
| 4 |  Georgia Bulldogs | -0.76 | 
| 5 |  Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 | 
| 6 |  Oregon Ducks | 0.00 | 
| 7 |  Texas Longhorns | 0.00 | 
| 8 |  Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 | 
| 9 |  Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 | 
| 10 |  James Madison Dukes | 0.55 | 
| 11 |  Tulane Green Wave | 1.23 | 
| 12 |  Liberty Flames | 1.18 | 
| 13 |  Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 | 
| 14 |  Missouri Tigers | -0.11 | 
| 15 |  Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 | 
| 16 |  Oklahoma Sooners | -0.05 | 
| 17 |  Oregon State Beavers | -0.57 | 
| 18 |  North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.23 | 
| 19 |  SMU Mustangs | 5.64 | 
| 20 |  Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.02 | 
| 21 |  Troy Trojans | 3.62 | 
| 22 |  Memphis Tigers | 3.09 | 
| 23 |  Fresno State Bulldogs | 2.06 | 
| 24 |  UNLV Rebels | 0.91 | 
| 25 |  Air Force Falcons | 0.13 | 
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness | 
|---|---|
|  LSU Tigers | 1.99 | 
|  Utah Utes | 1.38 | 
|  Arizona Wildcats | 1.06 | 
|  Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.77 | 
|  Kansas State Wildcats | 0.36 | 
|  Tennessee Volunteers | 0.38 | 
Total Score: 27.14