Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 13, 2023, 11:57 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 12 notes: Deservedness keeping 2-loss teams such as Penn State and Missouri behind 0-loss teams such as Liberty and 3-loss teams such as Notre Dame and LSU behind 1-loss teams such as Toledo. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have them losing to Michigan in the season finale |
2 | Washington Huskies | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl. I have them beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have FSU in the top four with Michigan, Washington, and Georgia |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl. I have them winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff |
6 | Oregon Ducks | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
7 | Texas Longhorns | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
9 | Louisville Cardinals | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
10 | James Madison Dukes | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl (at-large and not enough 6-6+ bowl-eligible teams) |
11 | Tulane Green Wave | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
12 | Liberty Flames | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl. As the lowest-ranked 0-loss team, they are blocking all of the 2+ loss teams from being ranked ahead of them (Deservedness) |
13 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
14 | Missouri Tigers | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
15 | Ole Miss Rebels | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
16 | Oklahoma Sooners | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
17 | Oregon State Beavers | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
18 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
19 | SMU Mustangs | Would be ranked ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
20 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
21 | Troy Trojans | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
22 | Memphis Tigers | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
23 | Fresno State Bulldogs | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
24 | UNLV Rebels | Would be ranked ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
25 | Air Force Falcons | Next five: Toledo (lowest-ranked 1-loss team and preventing any 3+ loss teams being ranked behind them), Notre Dame, LSU, Kansas State, Arizona (would be ranked ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.78 |
2 | Washington Huskies | 0.28 |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
4 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.76 |
5 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
7 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
8 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
9 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
10 | James Madison Dukes | 0.55 |
11 | Tulane Green Wave | 1.23 |
12 | Liberty Flames | 1.18 |
13 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
14 | Missouri Tigers | -0.11 |
15 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
16 | Oklahoma Sooners | -0.05 |
17 | Oregon State Beavers | -0.57 |
18 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.23 |
19 | SMU Mustangs | 5.64 |
20 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.02 |
21 | Troy Trojans | 3.62 |
22 | Memphis Tigers | 3.09 |
23 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 2.06 |
24 | UNLV Rebels | 0.91 |
25 | Air Force Falcons | 0.13 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
LSU Tigers | 1.99 |
Utah Utes | 1.38 |
Arizona Wildcats | 1.06 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.77 |
Kansas State Wildcats | 0.36 |
Tennessee Volunteers | 0.38 |
Total Score: 27.14