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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 12

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 12, 2023, 12:21 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines 6.02 (11.4-0.6)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 5.97 (11.3-0.7)
3 Georgia Bulldogs 5.70 (11.7-0.3)
4 Florida State Seminoles 5.46 (11.7-0.3)
5 Washington Huskies 5.41 (11.3-0.7)
6 Alabama Crimson Tide 5.14 (10.8-1.2)
7 Oregon Ducks 4.99 (10.5-1.5)
8 Penn State Nittany Lions 4.90 (9.8-2.2)
9 Ole Miss Rebels 4.82 (9.7-2.3)
10 Texas Longhorns 4.63 (10.4-1.6)
11 LSU Tigers 4.56 (8.5-3.5)
12 Missouri Tigers 4.50 (9.2-2.8)
13 Utah Utes 4.41 (8.6-3.4)
14 Oregon State Beavers 4.35 (8.8-3.2)
15 Louisville Cardinals 4.34 (10.3-1.7)
16 James Madison Dukes 4.30 (11.3-0.7)
17 Tennessee Volunteers 4.18 (8.2-3.8)
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4.11 (8.7-3.3)
19 USC Trojans 4.08 (7.6-4.4)
20 Liberty Flames 3.99 (11.7-0.3)
21 Oklahoma Sooners 3.99 (9.5-2.5)
22 Arizona Wildcats 3.98 (8.0-4.0)
23 Iowa Hawkeyes 3.98 (9.3-2.7)
24 Texas A&M Aggies 3.94 (7.4-4.6)
25 Kansas State Wildcats 3.93 (8.5-3.5)

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