Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 12, 2023, 12:21 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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6.02 (11.4-0.6) |
2 |
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5.97 (11.3-0.7) |
3 |
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5.70 (11.7-0.3) |
4 |
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5.46 (11.7-0.3) |
5 |
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5.41 (11.3-0.7) |
6 |
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5.14 (10.8-1.2) |
7 |
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4.99 (10.5-1.5) |
8 |
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4.90 (9.8-2.2) |
9 |
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4.82 (9.7-2.3) |
10 |
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4.63 (10.4-1.6) |
11 |
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4.56 (8.5-3.5) |
12 |
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4.50 (9.2-2.8) |
13 |
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4.41 (8.6-3.4) |
14 |
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4.35 (8.8-3.2) |
15 |
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4.34 (10.3-1.7) |
16 |
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4.30 (11.3-0.7) |
17 |
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4.18 (8.2-3.8) |
18 |
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4.11 (8.7-3.3) |
19 |
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4.08 (7.6-4.4) |
20 |
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3.99 (11.7-0.3) |
21 |
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3.99 (9.5-2.5) |
22 |
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3.98 (8.0-4.0) |
23 |
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3.98 (9.3-2.7) |
24 |
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3.94 (7.4-4.6) |
25 |
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3.93 (8.5-3.5) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.43 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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-0.05 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.18 |
7 |
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0.00 |
8 |
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0.90 |
9 |
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1.09 |
10 |
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-1.00 |
11 |
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0.96 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.89 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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-1.22 |
16 |
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0.00 |
17 |
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1.23 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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5.87 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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-1.86 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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0.00 |
24 |
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1.05 |
25 |
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-0.10 |