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CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 11

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 5, 2023, 2:43 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes > 38.5 pts. > 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Notre Dame, Penn State). > The Buckeyes are the only team in the country to play and beat two SP+ T-25 teams. > Historically, in my model, the number of points needed to secure a spot in the final Top 4 is 40 points. Ohio State will reach 40 with a win this week and, projecting out through the rest of the regular season, it looks like they will retain 40 even with a loss to Michigan.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide > 37.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 4 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). > I know this probably won't be a popular take, but Alabama, at this point in the season, deserves to be ranked higher than both Georgia and Michigan. Alabama has played four T-25 games and one T-10 game (compare that to UGA's two and zero, respectively, and Michigan's zero and zero, respectively) and has a 4-1 record in that grouping. In my opinion, that is far more impressive than what both Georgia and Michigan have done so far.
3 Washington Huskies > 35.0 pts. > 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). > 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). > The Huskies' offense returned in a big way this week and came away with another statement win. Washington has a huge game next week against the best defense in the conference, the SP+ #24 Utah Utes. > Washington could reach 40 points with a win this week if Utah plays well enough to jump back into the SP+ T-25. If not, Washington will have to wait another week.
4 Florida State Seminoles >32.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson). > Of the remaining undefeateds, ESPN gives FSU the best chance to win out (54.2%). > Even with a loss (unless that loss is to North Alabama), FSU will likely finish the season above the 40-point goal.
5 Texas Longhorns > 31.5 pts. > 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). > 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oklahoma). > Texas was gifted a T-25 win on a silver platter on Saturday when Chris Klieman elected to go for the win on 4th down in OT instead of taking the easy points. > The Longhorns will reach 40 points with wins over each of the remaining teams on their schedule.
6 Georgia Bulldogs > 31.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kentucky, Missouri). > The Bulldogs will reach 40 points with one loss (regardless of who that loss is to). If they win out, they will finish the year with around 57 points. With one loss, that point total drops to around 47.
7 Ole Miss Rebels > 29.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Texas A&M). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). > The only way Ole Miss can reach 40 is if they beat Georgia this week. I think it's safe to say that Ole Miss will not finish in the Top 4. Sorry, Rebels.
8 Utah Utes > 24.0 pts. > 0 SP+ 1 T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (UCLA, USC). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Oregon). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oregon State). > Utah needs to win out to reach 40 points - a tall order considering they need to get by Washington and an increasingly impressive Arizona team to do so.
9 Oregon Ducks > 21.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 1 SP+ T-25 wins (Utah). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). > Oregon's path to 40 points isn't an easy one. If my math and my understanding of the standings is correct, Oregon will need to win out and beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game to reach to exceed 40 points. Another loss and they'll be on the outside looking in.
10 Missouri Tigers > 19.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kansas State, Kentucky). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU).
11 Michigan Wolverines > T-11. 19.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > Given how weak Michigan's schedule is, the Wolverines need to win out to reach the magical number of 40 points. A loss to Penn State or Ohio State would mean they miss the B1G Championship Game. A loss to Maryland wouldn't knock them out of that game, but they would need a win over a good team in the championship game to crest 40 points, however, their most likely championship game opponent is SP+ #33 Iowa - a win over Iowa won't earn Michigan enough to reach 40 and they would probably get left out.
12 Oklahoma Sooners > T-11. 19.5 pts. > 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > 2 SP+ T-50 losses (Kansas, Oklahoma State). > I only have one thing to say as an Oklahoma fan... > Fire Jeff Lebby!
13 Penn State Nittany Lions > T-13. 18.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). > Penn State needs to win out and to have a little help from others ahead of them to jump into the Top 4.
14 Liberty Flames > T-13. 18.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins.
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish > T-15. 17.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 1 SP+ T-25 win (USC). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). > 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Louisville, Clemson).
16 Kansas Jayhawks > T-15. 17.5 pts. > 1 SP+ T-25 wins (Oklahoma). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). > 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Oklahoma State).
17 Louisville Cardinals > T-17. 17.0 pts. > 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > 1 FBS (outside T-50) loss (Pittsburgh).
18 James Madison Dukes > T-17. 17.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins.
19 LSU Tigers > T-19. 15.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 1 SP+ T-25 win (Missouri). > 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Florida State, Alabama). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss).
20 Tennessee Volunteers > T-19. 15.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Texas A&M, Kentucky). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Alabama). > 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida).
21 Duke Blue Devils > T-21. 13.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 1 SP+ T-25 win (Clemson). > 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Notre Dame, Ohio State). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (USC).
22 Arizona Wildcats > T-21. 13.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Oregon State, UCLA). > 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington) > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (USC). > 1 FBS loss (Mississippi State).
23 Oklahoma State Cowboys > 12.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Kansas State, Oklahoma). > 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Iowa State). > 1 FBS loss (South Alabama). > The Cowboys jumped up 15 spots with their controversial win over Oklahoma in the last Bedlam game for the foreseeable future. But let's not forget that, along with their huge wins over Kansas State; Kansas; and Oklahoma, they also have an abysmal loss to South Alabama.
24 Tulane Green Wave > 12.0 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss).
25 USC Trojans > 11.5 pts. > 0 SP+ T-10 wins. > 0 SP+ T-25 wins. > 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Notre Dame, Washington). > 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Utah).

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