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Pablo49 Ballot for 2023 Week 9

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 22, 2023, 4:46 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Each game, the winning team "steals" a portion of their opponents points. This starts with a base 40% of opponent's points, plus up to 1% bonus based on margin of victory and home/away status. This 40% base decreases as the weeks go on (down to 17.5% by postseason), this is done to limit large swings as the season progresses. The season is ran both forwards and backwards (For example on week 10, the poll calculates weeks 1->10 and then weeks 10->1) and then averages those. Final ranking is based on total points / games played, this was to address bye weeks really hurting teams. I'll likely turn this off when we head into post-season. This limits being destroyed by a week 1 loss, etc. Starting points are assigned as follows: P5: 500, G5: 400, FCS: 200. Previous year season is ran using these starting points. Current year starts with these points, but up to an additional 500 starting points based on last year's rankings. (i.e. #1 2022 starts season with 1000 points (if P5), and downwards from there). The goal of this poll is to (mostly) treat P5 and G5 the same, and rank deserving teams. G5 is punished slightly in the pre-season calculations (20% less points), and even less in current season (~10% less than P5). This is ranking the most "deserving" teams and not an attempt to rank the "best" teams or to be predictive. For example, being ranked above another team does not imply you are the better team or should beat a lower team, just that you had better performance in your season. While this is not a particularly statistical method, as the season develops the top 10 especially usually shake out pretty decently. In the 4 years I have ran this poll (with some revisions), I have had the same top 4 as CFP three times (2020 being it's own problem), albeit slightly different seeds. So I think it works out. JMU continues climb. Poll has strong favoritism for undefeated teams, but it is not a hard rule, texas (6-1) comes just ahead of jmu. Other examples exist too (lol air force). Louisville/NC Ranking better in my poll than AP @ me.

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