Ballot Detail

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Ballot Type: hybrid

Overall Rationale:
This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes
2 LSU Tigers
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Oklahoma Sooners OU jumping Georgia was not automatic, especially with OU going to OT instead of winning in regulation. But as much as I've gotten on the Sooners for their defensive efficiency, Georgia has just as many if not more issues with the offensive side of the ball.
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Baylor Bears Baylor's only two losses are tight games against a Top 4 team. Very impressive season from the Bears.
7 Florida Gators Just as a rising tide lifts all ships, a receding one can scuttle everyone in the harbor. I considered Florida at #4, which is where they would have finished if I let poll inertia rule my ballot, but their loss to Georgia looks that much worse in the wake of the Bulldog's blowout loss to LSU.
8 Wisconsin Badgers
9 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama would be higher with a healthy Tua. Mac Jones did play well against Auburn but his two pick-sixes were the difference, and those sorts of mistakes can't happen with Alabama's porous defense.
10 Auburn Tigers
11 Penn State Nittany Lions
12 Oregon Ducks
13 Utah Utes
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
15 Michigan Wolverines
16 Minnesota Golden Gophers
17 Memphis Tigers
18 Iowa Hawkeyes
19 USC Trojans
20 Boise State Broncos
21 UCF Knights
22 Appalachian State Mountaineers
23 Texas A&M Aggies
24 Cincinnati Bearcats
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys Honorable Mention: Kansas State, Iowa State, SMU, Air Force, Navy, Washington, Texas, Louisiana

Submitted: Tue 10 Dec 2019 04:56