Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Jan. 10, 2023, 2:14 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	2.3531*10^-7
2	TCU Horned Frogs	0.0000766257
3	Michigan Wolverines	0.000213652
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.000664861
5	Tennessee Volunteers	0.000998733
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00140934
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00225761
8	Tulane Green Wave	0.00480693
9	USC Trojans	0.00639706
10	LSU Tigers	0.0102679
11	Troy Trojans	0.0113733
12	Clemson Tigers	0.0134291
13	Oregon Ducks	0.0156837
14	Washington Huskies	0.0174642
15	Oregon State Beavers	0.020663
16	Kansas State Wildcats	0.023488
17	Florida State Seminoles	0.0315021
18	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.0357573
19	Utah Utes	0.0447069
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.0822542
21	UTSA Roadrunners	0.0838135
22	Texas Longhorns	0.123841
23	Louisville Cardinals	0.147039
24	UCLA Bruins	0.183607
25	Pittsburgh Panthers	0.200842

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	TCU Horned Frogs	0.00
3	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
5	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
8	Tulane Green Wave	0.00
9	USC Trojans	0.77
10	LSU Tigers	0.77
11	Troy Trojans	1.23
12	Clemson Tigers	0.00
13	Oregon Ducks	0.00
14	Washington Huskies	-1.22
15	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
16	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
17	Florida State Seminoles	-0.73
18	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.38
19	Utah Utes	-1.69
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
21	UTSA Roadrunners	0.96
22	Texas Longhorns	0.00
23	Louisville Cardinals	2.03
24	UCLA Bruins	-0.04
25	Pittsburgh Panthers	-0.22

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
South Carolina Gamecocks	0.39
Fresno State Bulldogs	0.28

Total Score: 10.72