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dusklord1 Ballot for 2022 Final

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Jan. 10, 2023, 12:17 a.m.

Overall Rationale: editing because I flipped the result of troy and utsa

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Clear #1, and will remain that way until they lose. With this performance against TCU, both semifinal games and The Game look all the more confusing in retrospect. I guess that's what happens in a sport played by 18-23 year olds.
2 TCU Horned Frogs Amazing season, despite ending on a sour note. I think it's entirely possible (if not very likely) that #s 3-4 are all better teams than TCU (by a wide margin too imo), but they earned a spot in the championship.
3 Michigan Wolverines With or without Harbaugh (but probably with), Michigan will be very dangerous next year and should be 11-1 at worst (OSU and @PSU are not easy outs). I expect them to return to the playoffs, however, they will likely face one of Alabama or Georgia in the first round. I'm not convinced that Harbaugh can out-scheme Kirby or Saban. They are unlikely to get a draw as "easy" as TCU again, especially if there are 2 SEC teams. Until proven otherwise, their ceiling is the semifinals. This was Harbaugh's best opportunity to reach the title game in the 4 team format and they laid an egg against TCU.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes Very impressed with Day and Stroud's performances against Georgia, despite coming up just short. Losing Marvin Harrison Jr. late was too big of a loss after being down most of the other first string skill players, otherwise we probably see OSU lifting the trophy tonight. Next year, the schedule is brutal (@ND, @Wisconsin, @Michigan, PSU), but they will contend if they fix issues on defense and have a decent showing at QB. They return every major contributor among the skill position players, which will help generate a smooth transition to the next QB.
5 Tennessee Volunteers Milton showed a lot of promise in a blowout win vs a pretty good Clemson team. Tennessee will be fine next year, but probably not a serious contender given the schedule.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide Impressive win vs Kansas State. Presumably back to being a title contender next year with one or more new coordinators. However, QB is a big question mark. Unlike OSU, they will not have the continuity in the skill players to make the transition super smooth.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions I think Penn State is probably better than Tennessee, but by resume I can't put them above Tennessee. Penn State will be extremely dangerous next year and should be a legit CFP contender (there is an extremely narrow situation where all 3 top B1G East teams could be in the top 4 next year). They have some very young stars on offense and a solid defense.
8 Washington Huskies Despite not playing for a Pac 12 title, Washington finishes the season with the best record in the Pac 12. They are a potential contender next year for at least the conference, particularly if they fix the pass defense. Penix was electric this season and returns.
9 Tulane Green Wave Really shocking comeback win vs USC.
10 Clemson Tigers
11 Utah Utes
12 USC Trojans Unless Riley fixes the defensive issues, I can't see USC ever being a serious title contender. This year had a favorable schedule and USC still couldn't get the job done. Despite Williams returning for a final year, USC will not make waves without a serious overhaul of the defensive staff and personnel.
13 Oregon State Beavers Very under-the-radar good season from Oregon State. Great defense, passable offense that should be better next year with a new QB.
14 Florida State Seminoles I'm not on the FSU hype train for next year. Sure, they return a lot from this team, but was this team all that great? Their best win was week 1 vs LSU with a new coach (a good win, but LSU then and LSU now are not the same team) and scraping by 8-5 Louisville. They squeaked by an ok 6-6 Oklahoma team in their bowl. They lost to what I think were the 3 best ACC teams on their schedule. I would have loved to see Florida and FSU flip bowl opponents to get a better idea of where FSU really stands. We know Oregon State is a good team, Oklahoma not so much (their last 4 losses were each by a field goal, so the record *might* be deceiving). Our computer overlords are also not so bullish on FSU either fwiw, with SP+ not even ranking them top 25. I think they were still a solid top 15 team this year and might be top 10 next year (mostly because the ACC is awful), but slam the brakes on any playoff talk. I don't see them competing with the big guns in the Big 10 and SEC, but I thought that about TCU too.
15 Oregon Ducks
16 Kansas State Wildcats
17 LSU Tigers Nothing much to say about the bowl game. Purdue basically didn't have a coaching staff and many of their best players were gone. Kelly's performance against Georgia wasn't that bad, once you take their early bad luck into consideration. Still, hard to gauge just how good they were. They should be pretty solid next year, but the SEC West can be cruel and unforgiving.
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish After starting 0-2 and barely beating an awful Cal team, I'm shocked that ND finished with 9 wins, including beating a red hot South Carolina in the bowl. Especially after picking up Sam Hartman, Notre Dame will have very high expectations for next year. Freeman just needs to avoid the dumb losses, he's done a good job at preparing the team for big games.
19 Mississippi State Bulldogs Glad they won the bowl game for Coach Leach. RIP.
20 Troy Trojans
21 Pittsburgh Panthers
22 UCLA Bruins
23 South Carolina Gamecocks South Carolina will be an interesting team next year. I'm curious to see what momentum they carry forward.
24 Minnesota Golden Gophers Despite being unable to win the West (something that won't change next year, as Minnesota draws Michigan and OSU), Minnesota has won 9 games in each of the last 3 non-shortened seasons.
25 Duke Blue Devils Mike Elko is a miracle worker getting Duke to 9 wins this quickly.

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