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ikindalikelemons Ballot for 2022 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 28, 2022, 11:49 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Every week I start from scratch in an attempt to eliminate poll inertia. Head-to-head matters when teams are relatively close, but can be superseded by injuries and other factors if they are absolutely pertinent. How do teams handle close games and late-game situations? How trustworthy is their QB? How experienced is the roster? Who's hurt? What kind of gameplan they use, how well do they assert it, and how well did they adjust in game?

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia is what I believe to be the most complete team, top to bottom, in college football this year. Their defense is stifling, and their offense, though hampered by some bland playcalling the last few weeks, is efficient as hell and sneaky dangerous. They can put up 40+ points on nearly anyone in the most visually displeasing way possible: slowwwwwly. I doubt the Dawgs will be challenged by LSU to the level usually expected of the SEC West champion, but it should still provide a needed tune-up against a quality opponent before the playoff begins.
2 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is fun. I don't care who doesn't think so. They play a weird type of smashmouth football where you still weirdly expect them to throw it on you despite them running down your throat, namely because JJ McCarthy is the one throwing it when they do, and the kid can hurl. That was well proven in Columbus on Saturday. If anyone is gonna go toe-to-toe with Georgia this season, it'll probably be Michigan. We might just get to see if they've made up the speed difference we saw last year.
3 TCU Horned Frogs TCU, man. Wow. At about 8 or 9 different points this season, 12-0 almost went off the rails. Here we are anyway though. Max Duggan is as trustworthy a signal caller as there is in college football, even if he doesn't get half the recognition he deserves. We've seen the defense turn it on when necessary, too (Texas, second half of K-State pt 1 come to mind). It is, however, hard to beat a team twice. I'll be very interested to see how round two with the purple wildcats goes, especially since the first time around, K-State jumped out to a 28-10 lead before the comeback. This one's gonna be goooooood.
4 USC Trojans ESPN playoff predictor can say what they want. I don't particularly give a shit. The Trojans are one of the 4 best teams in the country. That offense is a well damned oiled machine. The defense has some big question marks, and I worry about their ability to stop the offenses they could potentially see in Atlanta or Glendale. However, the offense has covered for the defense multiple times this season. Who's to say they can't do it one or two more times? Before they do that, they'll need to knock off a Utah team that beat them in Salt Lake the first time by on a late 2-pt conversion. It is, again, hard to beat a team twice, especially one of USC's quality. It feels very much like a Lincoln Riley team, good or bad.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes In my mind, this is the last team on my ballot that could still be in contention for a playoff spot. The Notre Dame win has aged...uhh...let's say better than we thought 6 weeks ago but still not as well as Ohio State really wishes it did. Beating Michigan was really the staple win they needed. No disrespect whatsoever to Penn State. They are a top-10 team on my ballot and a quality win. But if that ends up being your only high quality win up against Michigan (the aforementioned Penn State AND the Buckeyes), TCU (every team in the Big XII, which is deeper than the B1G), USC (the same ND team, UCLA, the Beavers, AND a potential make-up win against Utah), and UGA (Tennessee, Oregon, Carolina, and all the teams UT gets to count as ranked wins), you really, REALLY need at least one, and probably two of them to lose.
6 Tennessee Volunteers They're not in the playoff picture, but they still own some very impressive wins. I'm a big proponent of better wins over worse losses. I know the South Carolina loss is there. But do you want to go play the Cocks at night in Willy B right now with only part of a game with your starting QB? Didn't think so. This is still a team that beat Alabama and has some beatdowns of lesser, yet respectable teams on its resume. And ya know what, I'm just gonna say it. I don't think Joe Milton is a huge step down. Yes, he has a tendency to airmail, and yes, he's not as mobile as Hooker. He may not have won them the Bama or Florida games. But you know what? He put 56 on a Vandy team that just beat Florida and Kentucky so screw it I'm ready to watch him ball out in the Orange Bowl.
7 UCLA Bruins The only reason this team is so low in the AP and Coaches' polls is inertia. Plain and simple. I had them unranked as recently as two weeks ago, and now they're at 7. As stated in my rationale, I re-rack every week, and I put a lot of weight into coaching decisions and QB trust. I did not trust DTR for a stretch there in the middle of the season, but it seems as though he's hit his stride again and continued putting UCLA on his trusty shoulders. This is a solid team that in my opinion deserves the Rose Bowl over the likes of Utah and Washington, both of whom lost to UCLA.
8 Washington Huskies One of my biggest risers. Of all the 2-loss teams that could go here, I kinda looked at Washington and said yeah, you know what? They've looked hot down the stretch, and I legitimately believe the Pac-12 was the deepest conference in the country this year. Argue with ya momma. I'm a Georgia alum and I love the SEC, but the Pac-12 this year was SOLID, dude. They sit behind UCLA because of the head-to-head result, but these are teams I consider relatively level. Sure, Washington beat Oregon and UCLA didn't, but UCLA beat Washington and Washington avoided USC and Utah.
9 Alabama Crimson Tide Quit saying Alabama can back in to the playoff. They can't. Ohio State is the only team that can back in. No shot in hell the committee lets a 2-loss team without a conference championship appearance in regardless of who their coach is or what logo is on their chest. Yes, the two losses were both on the road in some of the harshest environments in football by thin margins. But 1: Don't care still lost and the usual Saban Bama wouldn't, and 2: As I said previously, I value your best wins more than your worst losses. Tell me: who is Bama's best win? Texas by the skin of their teeth against a 1-legged backup? Maybe Mississippi State? Certainly not Ole Miss after their backslide. They just aren't a top-6 team. Quit saying they are.
10 Penn State Nittany Lions What needs to be said about Penn State that we haven't already said during most years of James Franklin's tenure? They're a very good team. They're capable of beating most teams in the country...just...not the elite ones. If they have in the past few years, it's always been an upset. They just haven't been on par with Ohio State and Michigan. And that's okay. They can go run Tulane or UCF in the Cotton Bowl and be happy with it. I think the B1G getting rid of divisions can only serve to help them. It takes the big scarlet and blue shadow away.
11 Kansas State Wildcats Kansas State is such a weird team to figure. Lost to Tulane, which is fine. Blew a big lead to TCU, which is fine. Lost a close one to a solid Texas team, which is fine. Beat everyone else in a deep Big XII. I think they're better than their record shows, but beating TCU to claim the Big XII title would go along way toward proving that theory correct.
12 Clemson Tigers Clemson is here because Dabo Swinney has failed to grasp what so many others have seen already. DJ is not capable of quarterbacking a playoff-caliber team. It's a shame, because the Clemson defense has mostly been able to win them games this season. In the three games off the top of my head that the offense had to pull more weight, it only managed to do so once (Wake Forest). Getting trounced by Notre Dame and losing to SCAR probably don't happen with better QB play. No two ways about it. I'm not saying Cade Klubnik is the answer. None of us know that. And I'm sure DJ is well-liked and a well-respected leader in that locker room. But at a certain point, you have to look reality in the eye. If this Clemson team sees Tennessee or Alabama or some other team with an elite-level offense in a bowl game, DJ is gonna have to keep up. Can he?
13 Florida State Seminoles Florida State is ROLLING. It's hard to look back and see games in the same light now as we did then, but Florida State lost a close game to a much healthier NC State team than is currently on the field. The Wake loss isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. In a sea of 2-3 loss P5 teams in this area, FSU deserves to be around this level given how they're playing right now. The H2H loss to Clemson sits them just behind the Tigers, but the LSU win is better than most and the way they've won recently has been pretty telling of how Mike Norvell has energized this locker room.
14 Utah Utes Utah is yet another team that is just an oddball. The gutsy USC win on the two-point conversion is a great win that propels them this high, but had they knocked off either UCLA or Oregon, that would have been nicer. They're still solid, as anyone who has watched them can tell you. Every game that should have been close was, and save for Florida in the Swamp back in September, they've handled business against teams they should. The Florida loss looks a bit uglier now, but again, we weigh wins over losses. Florida State did beat the Gators, though. So they're a bit bumped. A huge opportunity lays ahead in the Pac-12 championship against USC, but uh...something something beating a team twice is hard something something.
15 Tulane Green Wave Listen, I am all for G5 empowerment and respect. I had Cincinnati in my Top 5 most of last season. But it is HARD for a G5 team to truly look as good as the Bearcats did last season. Tulane has had a great year. Win against UCF at home (beating a team twice is hard, UCF) on Saturday and they'll head to Arlington for the Cotton Bowl. The win against K-State looks great, but in order to get way up there as a G5 team ya gotta be undefeated. One thing that I factor in strongly is coaching, and dammit, having your coach take another job in the week leading up to your conference championship game SUCKS. It sucks. I don't know what to make of Tulane as a potential top-12 team until I see how they respond to the situation on Saturday against the Knights.
16 Oregon State Beavers A round of applause for the Beavs. It seems they've finally found their coaching fit, and with a 9-3 record in a tough conference and Civil War victory to show for it, it's hard not to be happy for the folks in Corvallis. This is not a team without flaws. They won on Saturday in spectacular comeback fashion despite only completing 6 passes, none of which occurred from the point where they were down 31-10 through the 34-38 final score. The Beavs will be a fascinating matchup for anyone in a potential Alamo or Las Vegas Bowl matchup.
17 LSU Tigers Brian Kelly wyd. Armed with a Bama win, a missed-extra point loss that the committee would forgive, and a crack next week at top-ranked Georgia, there was an obvious avenue for LSU to become the first 2-loss entrant in the current iteration of the CFP. Enter Jimbo Fisher's 4-7 Fightin' Texas Moneybaggies, exit playoff hopes. I was cautious to buy in to LSU in year one of Kelly's tenure despite Jayden Daniels getting progressively more comfortable as the season wore on. I eventually did, and it bit me in the ass. It was hard for me to trust their defense and their composure this season, and that ended up being their achilles heel when it mattered. I get that I'm going to have them lower than most ballots. I'm fine with that. I get if people are upset that they beat Bama yet are ranked 9 spots lower. I'm fine with that too. This is an inherently flawed team with one good win and an increasing amount of question marks.
18 South Carolina Gamecocks Hats off to Shane Beamer's squad. Asked after the 48-6 loss to UGA in Week 3 (Which I attended! It was hot) whether there was any give-up in his team, he responded with a quick and vicious "Hell no!" At the time, it was hard to see the Cocks rallying around Spencer Rattler and beating what looked like a slew of superior teams in Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, and Clemson ahead of them. Well, they took 3/4 of those games. I mean shit, dude. That doesn't look like give-up to me. It's clear that the team has 100% bought in to Shane Beamer, and if the recruiting starts to match the effort on the field, this is a team that could build off the end of this year and get a whole lot better soon. They deserve a nice bowl game after this one.
19 Oregon Ducks I believe Oregon is a great team. I believe that a healthy Bo Nix probably wins them the Washington and Oregon State games. However, my rationale also includes stipulations in my ranking system with regards to coaching and in-game management. I love what Dan Lanning has done for the Georgia Bulldogs. I like a lot of what he's building in Eugene. What I do not like, and do not understand, is the decision to go for it on 4th down deep in your own territory late in a rivalry game where you are either tied or leading. He did it against Washington and the RB slipped. Washington scored and won the game. Apparently not learning from his mistake, he did it AGAIN in the Civil War against the Beavers on Saturday and got stuffed. Oregon State scored and won the game. What in the everloving fuck kind of decision making is that? He did it TWICE! Do I need to break out the Doofenshmirtz two nickels saying?
20 Mississippi State Bulldogs That's just Mike Leach, baby. Take a deeper look at the Dogs' 8-4 record and it looks better than you may think. The loss to Kentucky looked better in October than now, I understand that. But 3/4 were to Georgia at home, a game in which they stuck around for the first half, and Bama/LSU each on the road. Even the Kentucky loss was at least on the road. They handled their business everywhere else, and Mike Leach got his first Egg Bowl win over Lane Kiffin's freefalling Rebels. I'd love to see this team get to go to Vegas and play Oregon State or something.
21 Troy Trojans Troy and South Alabama are each exceedingly solid G5 teams. You're not going to confuse their schedule with that of Texas, Georgia, or USC. I get it. Neither have always won pretty, but they have both still won 10 games. I WOULD give a slight edge to South Alabama, as their P5 loss was by 1 to a well-respected (now) UCLA team in Pasadena (albeit in front of fewer fans than there were total points). Troy, on the other hand, lost by 18 to Ole Miss, which has soured with time. HOWEVER, Troy did juuuuuust edge out the Jags, 10-6, a month ago to earn the SBC West crown and play James Madi- wait, huh? Coastal? That can't be right? Oh wait, the NCAA is dumb. Almost forgot that part. Yeah they get a crack at Coastal for what would be a massively impressive turnaround for Troy Sumrall in his first season. This is a man that should definitely be in play for coach of the year.
22 South Alabama Jaguars Troy and South Alabama are each exceedingly solid G5 teams. You're not going to confuse their schedule with that of Texas, Georgia, or USC. I get it. Neither have always won pretty, but they have both still won 10 games. I WOULD give a slight edge to South Alabama, as their P5 loss was by 1 to a well-respected (now) UCLA team in Pasadena (albeit in front of fewer fans than there were total points). Troy, on the other hand, lost by 18 to Ole Miss, which has soured with time. HOWEVER, Troy did juuuuuust edge out the Jags, 10-6, a month ago to earn the SBC West crown and play James Madi- wait, huh? Coastal? That can't be right? Oh wait, the NCAA is dumb. Almost forgot that part. Did I copy and paste the first 130 words of this write-up from the previous write-up? Am I typing this during work? The answer to both of those questions, my dear compatriots, is yes.
23 UTSA Roadrunners After stumbling out of the gate 1-2 with an OT loss to Houston and a closer-than-the-scoreboard-indicated loss to Texas back in September, the Roadrunners have proceeded to run directly through their entire C-USA schedule to finish 10-2. Again, strength of schedule this, strength of schedule that. Wouldn't you rather see a team like UTSA rewarded than another ho-hum underwhelming 4-5 loss P5 team here just because "25 is too many and nobody really deserves it"? I would. So meep meep motherfuckers, here we are.
24 Sacramento State Hornets I've said it in the comments a couple times, but until the middle-tier of FBS teams decides to not be, as my students say, "mid" (I am 24 years old but in my heart I am already 44), I will continue to rank at least one FCS team that I believe deserves it. I've had as many as 3 ranked in a single poll this season. I was tempted to put Jackson State here instead, but given that Sacramento State has not only beat the living shit out of most of their FCS schedule this season, but also went to Fort Collins and beat my mom's alma mater, the Colorado State Rams, by 31 points, I'd say they deserve it. I get that Colorado State is bad, but no FBS team, in theory, should be getting run out of their own stadium by an FCS team. I also like slotting them at 24 rather than 25 just for funsies. Also considered for the FCS slot: Jackson State, South Dakota State (my grandpa's alma mater!), Samford, Montana State, and Holy Cross, in that order.
25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Fuck me, right? I like Notre Dame. Sue me. They looked ROUGH early losing to Marshall and Stanford. But considering just what Marcus Freeman's squad was asked to do when their starting QB went down, finishing 8-4 with beatdowns of both ACC championship game participants feels like a *audibly gags* moral victory. The losses to Ohio State and USC, two top-5 teams, both on the road, are way more palatable than the two bad losses, and their wins look good, by and large. Drew Pyne has slowly but surely gotten a lot more consistent. Say empty calories all you want. I'm a Suns fan. It was said about Devin Booker for years before the truth was realized. Drew Pyne, don't let me down, son. Also considered, in no particular order: Texas, UCF, Ole Miss, Duke, NC State, Purdue, Boise State, James Madison

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