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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2022 Week 14

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 28, 2022, 9:23 a.m.

Overall Rationale: CCG week notes: Deservedness keeps teams such as Texas out when I would have them over some of the teams in this poll. General notes: 1st layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. 2nd layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). 3rd layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. 4th layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 8-4 Notre Dame can be ranked over 9-3 Cincinnati, but 8-4 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 9-2 Coastal Carolina even if rankings have Notre Dame over Coastal Carolina and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Coastal Carolina).

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Difference between Georgia and Michigan is insignificant so I just kept the hierarchy for now
2 Michigan Wolverines Was considering putting Michigan at #1 because of the big win over Ohio State, but there isn’t a big difference between 1 and 2 and Michigan has also had close games this year
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Would TCU, USC, or any other ranked team have played Michigan as close as Ohio State did? Team shouldn’t be penalized for losing to a highly-ranked team and for keeping it close for the vast majority of the game. They’re in if one of TCU or USC loses
4 TCU Horned Frogs If TCU wins the Big 12, they will definitely hop over Ohio State
5 USC Trojans If USC wins the Pac-12, they will definitely hop over Ohio State
6 Penn State Nittany Lions This is the ceiling for Penn State. If Utah wins, they’ll hop over Penn State in the rankings
7 Tennessee Volunteers This is the ceiling for Tennessee. If Utah wins, they’ll hop over Tennessee in the rankings
8 Utah Utes Even if Utah wins, they’re still behind Ohio State and even Clemson if Clemson wins.
9 Alabama Crimson Tide This is the ceiling for Alabama. If Clemson wins, they’ll hop over Alabama in the rankings
10 Clemson Tigers Even if Clemson wins, they’re still behind Ohio State. They’ll need TCU and USC to lose big, a blowout win over North Carolina, and still some more convincing for me to put them in at #4
11 Washington Huskies
12 Kansas State Wildcats Even if Kansas State wins, they’re still behind Ohio State, Utah, and Clemson in the rankings
13 Florida State Seminoles
14 Oregon State Beavers
15 Oregon Ducks
16 UCLA Bruins
17 LSU Tigers Even if LSU wins, they’re still behind Ohio State, Utah, Clemson, and Kansas State in the rankings
18 Tulane Green Wave Tulane needs to win to stay ranked above Troy, South Alabama, and maybe even UTSA for the American to keep the Cotton Bowl bid. UCF is such an up and down opponent that losing to them might not vault UCF up past Troy or UTSA.
19 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati only above UCF because of the madness that is UCF
20 North Carolina Tar Heels
21 UCF Knights UCF has the head to head over Cincinnati and Tulane, but they laid absolute stinkers against ECU, Navy, and even USF
22 Troy Trojans If Tulane loses to UCF, I’m not even sure I would put UCF in over Troy. I’d pick UCF in a head-to-head over Troy, but they’re so much more volatile. Troy needs UCF to win
23 South Alabama Jaguars
24 UTSA Roadrunners UTSA needs both Tulane to lose and Troy to lose big to have a shot at the Cotton Bowl
25 Boise State Broncos Don’t think Boise State has a shot even if Tulane, Troy, and UTSA lose as UCF and Coastal would be in over them. Next 5: 26 James Madison, 27 Coastal Carolina, 28 Notre Dame, 29 Texas, 30 Mississippi State

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