Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 27, 2022, 11:13 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Michigan Wolverines	0.000020946
2	TCU Horned Frogs	0.0000445446
3	Georgia Bulldogs	0.0000621689
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.000429415
5	USC Trojans	0.00117177
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00398609
7	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00407558
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00663231
9	LSU Tigers	0.0104187
10	Clemson Tigers	0.0200781
11	Kansas State Wildcats	0.0236866
12	Tulane Green Wave	0.0263832
13	Oregon State Beavers	0.0273134
14	Oregon Ducks	0.0288105
15	Troy Trojans	0.039738
16	Texas Longhorns	0.0482527
17	Washington Huskies	0.050073
18	Florida State Seminoles	0.0562501
19	UTSA Roadrunners	0.0585178
20	Utah Utes	0.06992
21	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.0839868
22	UCLA Bruins	0.100356
23	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.104049
24	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.128176
25	UCF Knights	0.129579

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Michigan Wolverines	0.07
2	TCU Horned Frogs	0.22
3	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.91
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.23
5	USC Trojans	0.00
6	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
7	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
9	LSU Tigers	0.65
10	Clemson Tigers	0.00
11	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
12	Tulane Green Wave	0.61
13	Oregon State Beavers	0.30
14	Oregon Ducks	0.00
15	Troy Trojans	1.94
16	Texas Longhorns	0.47
17	Washington Huskies	-1.74
18	Florida State Seminoles	-0.52
19	UTSA Roadrunners	0.25
20	Utah Utes	-1.89
21	Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.86
22	UCLA Bruins	-0.67
23	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	1.75
24	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.36
25	UCF Knights	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
South Carolina Gamecocks	0.92
North Carolina Tar Heels	0.13

Total Score: 14.48