Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Nov. 27, 2022, 8:30 a.m.
Overall Rationale: General ranking thought process is a combination of considering efficiency metrics and quality of resume (recency weighted more heavily throughout the season, but this week I modified slightly for total resume since it's end-of-year for only some teams). Slight bonus added for G5 at the bottom to recognize them. Dropped from last week: North Carolina (18 - Just too much bad play the last 4 weeks), Ole Miss (19 - Similar to UNC. Rivalry game loss is worse when at home), Cincinnati (22 - Don't hate this loss, but it was at home, and looking back at their schedule they really failed to ever beat up on a bad team. Kind of lost any game they had a chance to prove themselves against a good team), Coastal Carolina (24). New this week: Troy (22), Mississippi State (23), South Alabama (24), UTSA (25). Next few out, in order (quite a few this week since a lot of G5 teams had strong ends to the season, and a number of P5 teams snuck their way to 8-4 records): UCF, UNC, Purdue, Illinois, Cincinnati, Boise State, James Madison, Air Force, NC State, Ole Miss, Ohio, Minnesota, Pitt, Coastal Carolina
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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2 |
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3 |
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4 |
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5 |
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A combination of the severity of their loss (although a victim of big play luck, don't allow THAT many), quality of USC's win (which is now the same as one of two relevant wins for OSU all year), and the forward-facing "if USC and TCU win, they *should*/*will* be the top 4", I can't justify keeping them around |
6 |
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7 |
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Looking back on the season-long resume, I had them underrated. 5-1 vs. ranked teams at the time (albeit only 2-2 vs. final), but their middle-tier wins (florida, pitt, kentucky) are better than they were a week ago. |
8 |
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9 |
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10 |
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11 |
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Tough to rank the 3-loss Pac teams (these 3, plus UCLA) since they are so close. I give Utah the bump to #1 for the USC win and all 3 losses on the road. |
12 |
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Head to head tiebreaker and recency bias. Only lost to teams above them. Boise win is starting to carry weight. |
13 |
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Lost 2 of 3, kind of disregarding BYU win by this point |
14 |
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My first draft had them at 11, but looking back at it, their ranking was purely based on the Alabama win. Ole Miss has lost a ton of value, and this loss is truly bad. I can't justify them above 3-loss Pac teams with tougher conference schedule (can't believe that's a real sentence). |
15 |
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16 |
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Can't drop beyond FSU for 2 vs. 3 in the loss column and a road win there, but this team just stinks to watch. No redeeming qualities outside the defensive line. |
17 |
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Weaker resume than I remember, LSU and Louisville wins lose some steam this week, and Wake and NC State losses are kind of irredeemable. Finished on a good run but any moderately good team should vs. that schedule. |
18 |
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Lowest of the Pac-12 3-loss teams purely based on the Arizona loss. Admittedly have the Utah and Washington wins (and South Alabama?), but the loss is tougher to swallow for me than crediting the wins. |
19 |
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20 |
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21 |
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22 |
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If not for the hail mary, we're talking about NY6 Troy |
23 |
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24 |
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If not for a 10-6 thursday night game or a singe failed fourth down, we're talking about NY6 south alabama. Could easily be 12-0. |
25 |
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Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
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1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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0.00 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.01 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.69 |
13 |
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0.22 |
14 |
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0.00 |
15 |
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0.00 |
16 |
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-1.06 |
17 |
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-0.17 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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0.00 |
21 |
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0.00 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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0.00 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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-0.03 |