NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2022 Week 14
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 27, 2022, 1:49 a.m.
Overall Rationale: I project each team's record pre conference championships by a simple Kalman filter driven by win margins, and then find the maximum a posteriori estimate of their Bradley-Terry ratings (scaled to be like FPI). Each team starts with a prior of 0.5 win and 0.5 loss against a fictitious opponent of rating 0.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Rating: 44.27 (Record: 12-0) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
42.05 (12-0) |
| 3 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
37.64 (12-0) |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
32.85 (11-1) |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
29.09 (10-2) |
| 6 |
USC Trojans
|
28.95 (11-1) |
| 7 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
26.97 (11-0) |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
26.13 (10-2) |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
26.07 (10-2) |
| 10 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
25.61 (11-0) |
| 11 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
23.69 (10-1) |
| 12 |
Clemson Tigers
|
23.34 (10-2) |
| 13 |
Oregon Ducks
|
23.27 (9-3) |
| 14 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
22.39 (9-3) |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
22.25 (9-3) |
| 16 |
Washington Huskies
|
21.94 (10-2) |
| 17 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
21.13 (9-3) |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
20.94 (9-3) |
| 19 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
20.92 (11-0) |
| 20 |
UCLA Bruins
|
20.19 (9-3) |
| 21 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
18.88 (9-3) |
| 22 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
18.84 (8-4) |
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
18.74 (8-4) |
| 24 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
18.65 (10-1) |
| 25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
18.34 (8-4) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.23 |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.33 |
| 6 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Sacramento State Hornets
|
18.10 |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.66 |
| 10 |
Holy Cross Crusaders
|
15.16 |
| 11 |
Samford Bulldogs
|
14.20 |
| 12 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.22 |
| 14 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1.39 |
| 17 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
-0.80 |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
-1.19 |
| 19 |
Jackson State Tigers
|
6.20 |
| 20 |
UCLA Bruins
|
-0.02 |
| 21 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-1.56 |
| 22 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.37 |
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
1.24 |
| 25 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
-0.56 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.98 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.03 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.33 |
Troy Trojans
|
0.02 |
UCF Knights
|
0.36 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.13 |
Total Score: 66.11