Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 2, 2022, 6:14 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Weighted composite of FPI, SP+, and accelerated ELO
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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29.9, +9.6 from last week, +6 positions from last week, 41.6 (1st) in win/loss aELO, 26.8 (1st) in margin of victory aELO. The weight of accelerated ELO increased significantly this week, and both NC State and Wake Forest are considered major wins by the model, making their record the most impressive by far. |
2 |
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27.9, +0.6, -, 30.2 (3rd), 24.1 (4th) |
3 |
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26.0, -5.2, -2, 30.1 (4th), 22.2 (5th). The close call with Missouri sees Georgia drop this week. |
4 |
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23.9, +0.4, -1, 24.1 (13th), 20.9 (6th). Strength of schedule is holding Ohio State back in this model. |
5 |
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23.3, +10.3, +19, 28.5 (7th), 24.7 (3rd). The huge win over Oklahoma was only the 4th game for TCU this year. The model is still trying to figure out TCU; expect them to move a few more times before settling. |
6 |
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23.2, +3.1, +2, 28.6 (6th), 19.0 (9th) |
7 |
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21.5, NR, 27.6 (8th), 24.7 (2nd). A convincing win over Florida State and an overtime loss against Clemson give Wake Forest the 2nd-best margin of victory aELO, vaulting them from the Honorable Mentions last week into the Top 10. |
8 |
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19.4, +2.5, +4, 27.3 (9th), 12.7 (22nd). The win over Kentucky is enough to push them into the Top 10. |
9 |
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19.3, +0.2, +2, 26.9 (10th), 14.7 (15th). Northwestern stayed relatively close, but that was offset by a strength of schedule boost from Purdue. They gain places due to others falling. |
10 |
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19.1, -3.3, -4, 19.9 (19th), 20.6 (7th). They fall due to Florida State’s loss and their own close game against Auburn. |
11 |
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18.9, +4.9, +9, 29.7 (5th), 13.1 (20th). A huge win against Washington gives UCLA the 5th-best win/loss aELO. |
12 |
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17.5, +1.9, +4, 25.2 (12th), 18.3 (11th). Appalachian State is propping up their strength of schedule, but the Dukes are acting like a Top 15 team in terms of margin of victory. |
13 |
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17.3, +4.1, +10, 30.3 (2nd), 13.2 (19th). No signature wins yet per se, but all of their FBS wins are against top-half teams. If they were not truly a Top 25 team, the model would expect them to have lost one of those games. |
14 |
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17.2, +1.1, +1, 21.2 (17th), 17.8 (12th). You read that right: NC State went up a spot despite losing to Clemson. That is because more weight was given to aELO this week, and the current model would expect Clemson to beat NC State by 12.7 points on a neutral field, while Clemson only won by 10 at home. |
15 |
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17.0, -6.2, -11, 22.3 (15th), 17.3 (13th). Despite the loss, the model still loves their win over LSU, so they stay ranked. |
16 |
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17.0, +1.6, +1, 17.1 (21st), 18.7 (10th). The model did not have A&M ranked going into last week, so the solid home win did not help the Bulldogs as much as you might expect. |
17 |
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16.0, +0.7, +1, 10.4 (33rd), 19.5 (8th). Their record is not worthy of being ranked, but the model is accounting for how close their losses were vs. how lopsided their wins were. |
18 |
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15.9, -3.8, -9, 23.2 (14th), 7.7 (43rd). Despite not playing this week, Tennessee plummets in these rankings due to Pitt’s loss to Georgia Tech. The Volunteers’ overtime win doesn’t look nearly as good as it used to. |
19 |
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15.6, -3.6, -9, 21.2 (18th), 11.7 (26th). The model HATES Arizona State due to their loss to EMU, so it expected a blowout this week. After Oregon State was dismantled, no team USC has faced thus far is considered to be in the top half of the FBS, and the margin of victory the past two weeks hasn’t been enough to keep USC in the Top 10. |
20 |
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15.6, NR, 22.2 (16th), 10.3 (31st). Another team bit by beating Arizona State (and Central Michigan) by less than 20, Oklahoma State’s solid win over Baylor gets them back in the rankings this week. |
21 |
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15.4, -1.5, -8, 18.5 (20th), 13.4 (18th). Oregon drops, not of their own doing, but because of a strength of schedule hit mainly from Georgia. |
22 |
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14.5, NR, 16.6 (23rd), 14.8 (14th). Another solid win sees K-State overcome the Tulane loss to re-enter the rankings. |
23 |
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14.4, +0.7, -2, 25.6 (11th), 9.3 (36th). Syracuse stayed steady; they only dropped due to Oklahoma State and K-State rising. |
24 |
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14.3, NR, 16.1 (24th), 14.0 (17th). Their only blemish is a close loss to Michigan. |
25 |
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12.1, -4.4, -11, 12.2 (27th), 12.8 (21st). They lost to UCLA, but someone still has to be #25! Honorable Mention: Kentucky 11.1 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
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1 |
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1.04 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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-0.19 |
5 |
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1.52 |
6 |
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0.00 |
7 |
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1.57 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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3.14 |
11 |
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0.26 |
12 |
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2.80 |
13 |
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0.00 |
14 |
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0.11 |
15 |
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3.06 |
16 |
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0.86 |
17 |
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7.79 |
18 |
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-2.65 |
19 |
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-2.33 |
20 |
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-2.30 |
21 |
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-0.92 |
22 |
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0.00 |
23 |
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-0.03 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
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1.45 |
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1.55 |
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0.78 |
Total Score: 34.36