Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 2, 2022, 6:14 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Weighted composite of FPI, SP+, and accelerated ELO
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Clemson Tigers | 29.9, +9.6 from last week, +6 positions from last week, 41.6 (1st) in win/loss aELO, 26.8 (1st) in margin of victory aELO. The weight of accelerated ELO increased significantly this week, and both NC State and Wake Forest are considered major wins by the model, making their record the most impressive by far. |
2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 27.9, +0.6, -, 30.2 (3rd), 24.1 (4th) |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 26.0, -5.2, -2, 30.1 (4th), 22.2 (5th). The close call with Missouri sees Georgia drop this week. |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 23.9, +0.4, -1, 24.1 (13th), 20.9 (6th). Strength of schedule is holding Ohio State back in this model. |
5 | TCU Horned Frogs | 23.3, +10.3, +19, 28.5 (7th), 24.7 (3rd). The huge win over Oklahoma was only the 4th game for TCU this year. The model is still trying to figure out TCU; expect them to move a few more times before settling. |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | 23.2, +3.1, +2, 28.6 (6th), 19.0 (9th) |
7 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 21.5, NR, 27.6 (8th), 24.7 (2nd). A convincing win over Florida State and an overtime loss against Clemson give Wake Forest the 2nd-best margin of victory aELO, vaulting them from the Honorable Mentions last week into the Top 10. |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | 19.4, +2.5, +4, 27.3 (9th), 12.7 (22nd). The win over Kentucky is enough to push them into the Top 10. |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 19.3, +0.2, +2, 26.9 (10th), 14.7 (15th). Northwestern stayed relatively close, but that was offset by a strength of schedule boost from Purdue. They gain places due to others falling. |
10 | LSU Tigers | 19.1, -3.3, -4, 19.9 (19th), 20.6 (7th). They fall due to Florida State’s loss and their own close game against Auburn. |
11 | UCLA Bruins | 18.9, +4.9, +9, 29.7 (5th), 13.1 (20th). A huge win against Washington gives UCLA the 5th-best win/loss aELO. |
12 | James Madison Dukes | 17.5, +1.9, +4, 25.2 (12th), 18.3 (11th). Appalachian State is propping up their strength of schedule, but the Dukes are acting like a Top 15 team in terms of margin of victory. |
13 | Kansas Jayhawks | 17.3, +4.1, +10, 30.3 (2nd), 13.2 (19th). No signature wins yet per se, but all of their FBS wins are against top-half teams. If they were not truly a Top 25 team, the model would expect them to have lost one of those games. |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | 17.2, +1.1, +1, 21.2 (17th), 17.8 (12th). You read that right: NC State went up a spot despite losing to Clemson. That is because more weight was given to aELO this week, and the current model would expect Clemson to beat NC State by 12.7 points on a neutral field, while Clemson only won by 10 at home. |
15 | Florida State Seminoles | 17.0, -6.2, -11, 22.3 (15th), 17.3 (13th). Despite the loss, the model still loves their win over LSU, so they stay ranked. |
16 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 17.0, +1.6, +1, 17.1 (21st), 18.7 (10th). The model did not have A&M ranked going into last week, so the solid home win did not help the Bulldogs as much as you might expect. |
17 | Texas Longhorns | 16.0, +0.7, +1, 10.4 (33rd), 19.5 (8th). Their record is not worthy of being ranked, but the model is accounting for how close their losses were vs. how lopsided their wins were. |
18 | Tennessee Volunteers | 15.9, -3.8, -9, 23.2 (14th), 7.7 (43rd). Despite not playing this week, Tennessee plummets in these rankings due to Pitt’s loss to Georgia Tech. The Volunteers’ overtime win doesn’t look nearly as good as it used to. |
19 | USC Trojans | 15.6, -3.6, -9, 21.2 (18th), 11.7 (26th). The model HATES Arizona State due to their loss to EMU, so it expected a blowout this week. After Oregon State was dismantled, no team USC has faced thus far is considered to be in the top half of the FBS, and the margin of victory the past two weeks hasn’t been enough to keep USC in the Top 10. |
20 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 15.6, NR, 22.2 (16th), 10.3 (31st). Another team bit by beating Arizona State (and Central Michigan) by less than 20, Oklahoma State’s solid win over Baylor gets them back in the rankings this week. |
21 | Oregon Ducks | 15.4, -1.5, -8, 18.5 (20th), 13.4 (18th). Oregon drops, not of their own doing, but because of a strength of schedule hit mainly from Georgia. |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | 14.5, NR, 16.6 (23rd), 14.8 (14th). Another solid win sees K-State overcome the Tulane loss to re-enter the rankings. |
23 | Syracuse Orange | 14.4, +0.7, -2, 25.6 (11th), 9.3 (36th). Syracuse stayed steady; they only dropped due to Oklahoma State and K-State rising. |
24 | Maryland Terrapins | 14.3, NR, 16.1 (24th), 14.0 (17th). Their only blemish is a close loss to Michigan. |
25 | Washington Huskies | 12.1, -4.4, -11, 12.2 (27th), 12.8 (21st). They lost to UCLA, but someone still has to be #25! Honorable Mention: Kentucky 11.1 |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Clemson Tigers | 1.04 |
2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | -0.19 |
5 | TCU Horned Frogs | 1.52 |
6 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
7 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 1.57 |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
9 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
10 | LSU Tigers | 3.14 |
11 | UCLA Bruins | 0.26 |
12 | James Madison Dukes | 2.80 |
13 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.00 |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.11 |
15 | Florida State Seminoles | 3.06 |
16 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.86 |
17 | Texas Longhorns | 7.79 |
18 | Tennessee Volunteers | -2.65 |
19 | USC Trojans | -2.33 |
20 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | -2.30 |
21 | Oregon Ducks | -0.92 |
22 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
23 | Syracuse Orange | -0.03 |
24 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.00 |
25 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Utah Utes | 1.45 |
Kentucky Wildcats | 1.55 |
BYU Cougars | 0.78 |
Total Score: 34.36