Back to poll results >>

hypercube42342 Ballot for 2021 Week 4

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 20, 2021, 8:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Just doing a human ballot this week. My computer algorithm isn't fully automated yet and I don't have energy to deal with football coding right now after the Arizona game.The general thing I'm looking at here is margin of victory and opponent quality without penalizing for wins and losses. Expectations coming into the season are still factored in, but less than last week. So, for example, a 7 point loss to Alabama is viewed as a great result for these rankings. A 7 point win against Arizona, not so much. The result of this is that teams like Oklahoma that have had several unconvincing wins drop in the rankings compared to most ballots. On the flipside, Fresno State is an example of a team that benefits, having one loss to an extremely highly regarded Oregon team by 7. Since the computer isn't running this week, I am using my ballot from last week (that included computer rankings) as a basis for how good teams are, and modifying that based on this week's results.As a general note, I also don't value big wins against outmatched teams unless they are notable in some way (eg a shutout). Even then, I try not to let them affect my rankings in any meaningful way. Dropped from rankings: Arizona State, UCF, USC. Also addressed was a technical error that caused NC State to be ranked 16.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks Wins against Fresno State and Ohio State rank as some of the best wins so far this season, with Fresno State's win over UCLA.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Great, though close, win against Florida. The Miami win has been devalued somewhat, though.
3 Georgia Bulldogs The win against Clemson was devalued somewhat this week when Clemson struggled to beat Georgia Tech (yikes). It is still, however, a great win, and preseason expectations don't hurt.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions Great performance against Auburn, to go with strong performances against Wisconsin and an underrated Ball State team.
5 Iowa Hawkeyes Nothing notable about this week for Iowa. They hold steady.
6 Cincinnati Bearcats Good, two possession win against a possibly edge-of-top-25 caliber Indiana team.
7 Florida Gators They lost by 2 to an indisputable top 3 team. They move up in spite of the loss because a 2 point loss to Bama is better than many team's wins this week, passing teams like Oklahoma (escaped Nebraska) and Ohio State (pulled away late from Tulsa).
8 Ole Miss Rebels Good win against a Tulane team that held Oklahoma close.
9 Ohio State Buckeyes A one possession loss to my current #1 Oregon looks good enough right now to keep them on the edge of the top ten. The Minnesota win and the fourth quarter of the Tulsa game are carrying them hard.
10 Auburn Tigers This is one of those rankings that is very affected by my approach. Many would say I should drop them for losing to Penn State. But Penn State is top 4 in my standings and has proven themself against multiple good teams. A one possession loss to them is better than any win from the teams they moved past, and better than any result those teams have except for Clemson's Georgia loss.
11 Texas A&M Aggies Nothing notable about this week to an overmatched New Mexico team. Arkansas will be a huge test next week.
12 Michigan Wolverines Nothing particularly notable here. Michigan has put together a decent resume so far.
13 Clemson Tigers Playing Georgia Tech that close is not a good look. The bad offense has gone from a fluke of playing Georgia to a pattern, and I can not justify keeping them top ten until it improves.
14 Oklahoma Sooners Similar story to Clemson, though less severe. OU's offense is not playing to OU's standards at all, and until and unless Nebraska proves themselves to have a pulse, this game looks terrible. They stay below Clemson because I still think Clemson's defense is better and because Clemson has earned the benefit of the doubt in a similar fashion to Bama, though OU's offense is definitely better.
15 Fresno State Bulldogs Good win against UCLA, and that close Oregon loss is also a good result. I feel that in a generic week, they'd be ranked around 20, but I don't see many resumes as solid as usual this week.
16 Arkansas Razorbacks Handled their business. A&M will be a real test of this team.
17 North Carolina Tar Heels Nothing much to say here. Virginia's a decent though unexciting win.
18 Michigan State Spartans Whether Miami turns out to be a paper tiger or not, this was still a good result against a team with a lot of talent.
19 BYU Cougars Put them in the Pac-12 championship against Oregon
20 Iowa State Cyclones This was a much better game than the last two weeks. They'll move back up quickly if they show up against Baylor.
21 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Too many unconvincing games against not great opponents. Wouldn't be ranked at all if it weren't for preseason expectations, and they won't be ranked much longer unless something changes.
22 Wisconsin Badgers Close game against Penn State looks better now than it did at the time, but I really don't have much to judge this team off of yet, particularly with only 2 games played.
23 Kansas State Wildcats That Stanford blowout looks pretty darn good
24 UCLA Bruins I don't really think either of these last 2 teams deserve a rank, but couldn't justify ranking anyone in front of them
25 Maryland Terrapins See UCLA

Back to poll results >>