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ExternalTangents Ballot for 2018 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 24, 2018, 8:59 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I am testing out a new system this week. This system looks only at FBS vs FBS games. It attempts to estimate the most likely ranking for a team, based on the results in the games it has played to this point in the season. It gives a the probability that a team is top ten, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, etc, all the way to 121-130. Then it uses those to calculate the approximate most likely ranking based on the team's results. It starts with no preconceptions about how good any teams are, and only looks at wins and losses this season. Each week it starts fresh from a seed ranking where all teams are treated equally, and iterates through the algorithm repeatedly, refining its inputs in order to refine its outputs. Eventually the inputs and the outputs are the same. I am still working on improving the system and may or may not continue to use it next week.

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