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stripes361 Ballot for 2018 Week 4

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 17, 2018, 3:06 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Performance/team quality ranking, based primarily on ESPN's FPI and Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings. Not intended to be a resume ranking. Teams moved up and down from their spots in the computer rankings based on eye test, coaching, QB play, and other subjective factors.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
3 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia has only played cupcakes so far but the computers love their blowouts so I am tentatively jumping them over Clemson for now.
4 Clemson Tigers
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State's secondary has looked better since their opening debacle against Appalachian State. Tentatively moving them closer to my preseason rank of #4.
6 Oklahoma Sooners
7 Washington Huskies Utah always plays tough D but I'm still worried that Washington's old offensive issues are resurfacing. Dropping the Huskies a spot below Oklahoma despite picking up an impressive resume booster.
8 Mississippi State Bulldogs Nick Fitzgerald has been very impressive so far. He could take the Bulldogs a long, long way this season.
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State is now 6th in S&P+ and 11th in FPI. Their dominant win against a Boise team I ranked 20th last week is as impressive as any this season across college football.
10 Stanford Cardinal I won't punish the Cardinal for a lackluster performance against UC Davis sans Bryce Love, although I could have punished them for USC's putrid showing against Texas. Still, I'm a huge believer in the Costello/Love backfield when healthy.
11 LSU Tigers I'd be remiss not to congratulate Tigers fans for their nail-biting win against Auburn this weekend. Props to former Assumption College kicker Cole Tracy for providing college football's best individual moment so far with his game-winning kick.
12 Texas A&M Aggies
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Dropping Notre Dame again after a very shaky performance against Vandy. I just don't see their offense coming together this year.
14 Michigan Wolverines Keeping Michigan up slightly on account of their strong computer numbers, ranking them 10th in S&P+ and 8th in FPI. I am also impressed with Shea Patterson's play at QB. A strong showing from the offense to begin Big Ten play would do wonders for my evaluation of them.
15 Auburn Tigers
16 Wisconsin Badgers BYU may turn out to be a strong team but they lost 9 games last year. At the moment, this is a very disappointing performance for the Badgers.
17 Michigan State Spartans
18 Miami Hurricanes Miami is still 12th in FPI and acquitted themselves well against defending MAC champions Toledo this Saturday. Unfortunately, they don't get a chance for a quality win (and redemption from opening weekend) until their Oct. 26 trip to Boston College.
19 West Virginia Mountaineers Giving WVU a boost this week on account of their strong computer numbers (15th in S&P+) and strong QB play from Will Grier.
20 Virginia Tech Hokies VPI drops two spots despite a bye week for a couple reasons. Primarily, FSU's blowout loss to Syracuse (by a larger margin than they lost to the Hokies) is really killing the quality of the only FBS win so far for Justin Fuente's squad. Secondarily, and as a result of FSU's struggles, VPI's computer numbers are sagging. The Hokies are holding on at 19th in FPI but have dipped to 41st in the much more reactive S&P+. I'm holding onto them for now, as I really do believe in their talent, but they will need to play well in their road game against Duke at the end of the month to stay in.
21 Duke Blue Devils Jumping Duke over Iowa due to ever so slightly stronger computer numbers. Really could go either way. Duke's 34-14 win over Army looks quite impressive at the moment with the way the Black Knights are playing.
22 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa beat Iowa State by the same margin Oklahoma did. Their defense is going to give every team on their schedule headaches, Penn State included.
23 Boise State Broncos Despite the lopsided loss this weekend, I have to keep Boise on my ballot with the Broncos holding Top 20 spots in both FPI and S&P+. With Fresno State, Utah State, BYU, and San Diego State all coming to Boise this year, the Broncos could potentially run the table and are solid favorites to win the Mountain West.
24 Boston College Eagles At 24th in FPI and 17th in S&P+, and already possessing a conference road win, Boston College is a legitimate Top 25 squad regardless of your criteria. Anthony Brown's passer rating would be 2nd in FBS if he had enough attempts to qualify for the leaderboard.
25 TCU Horned Frogs TCU had a respectable enough performance against Ohio State to stay in the Top 25 this week, beating out several worthy contenders for the last spot. Oregon drops out on the basis of weak computer numbers, a struggling Bowling Green (its best win of the year so far) and a disappointing performance against San Jose State. I really wanted to get several teams (esp. Missouri, Central Florida, and Memphis) onto my ballot this week but ran out of room, which is better than my normal conundrum of not liking any teams past about #22 or #23. There is a strong Top 25 bubble at the moment. Honorable Mentions: Missouri, Oregon, Central Florida, Washington State, Kentucky, Indiana, Florida, Memphis

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