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boonamobile Ballot for 2018 Week 4

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 16, 2018, 8:49 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is my second year using a backward-looking computer poll that evaluates every team's ENTIRE resume from scratch each week. Rankings depend on your record, each of your opponents' records throughout the season (a rough SoS metric), and each of your opponents' opponents' records (a 'second order' SoS metric), with weight given to relative competition level (FCS, G5, P5). **NEW THIS YEAR:** The algorithm now accounts for margin of victory and 'game control' (% of points scored by each team), as well as head-to-head outcomes. **Primary shortcomings:** Common opponents are not factored in, and all FCS teams are treated as equal (anyone know of a good source for scraping FCS game data?). Questions, comments, concerns, suggestions, and obscenities are all welcome.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama separated itself as the clear #1 this week by absolutely dominating an otherwise 2-0 P5 team that had been blowing out other teams previously. 
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State's dominant performances give it a clear edge over the rest of the pack except for Alabama, with the B1G's lackluster OOC record so far weighing down their SoS and a relatively modest victory over TCU. The significance of that win will change over time depending on how each team performs from here out.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions
4 Duke Blue Devils My algorithm is high on Duke because they are a 3-0 P5 team who has beaten their opponents by margins that are large **relative to** those teams' typical score differentials. Their most consequential victory was their 21-7 win over Northwestern, with the -14 point differential being about 2.5 standard deviations worse than Northwestern's mean point differential throughout the season **so far**.
5 Oklahoma Sooners
6 West Virginia Mountaineers
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8 Mississippi State Bulldogs
9 Georgia Bulldogs
10 Iowa Hawkeyes
11 Indiana Hoosiers
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys
13 North Texas Mean Green Being 3-0 and beating Arkansas by 27 points has its perks.
14 Missouri Tigers
15 LSU Tigers
16 Colorado Buffaloes
17 California Golden Bears
18 Cincinnati Bearcats
19 Stanford Cardinal
20 Akron Zips Akron will probably not live long on this list.
21 USF Bulls
22 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
23 NC State Wolfpack
24 Clemson Tigers Clemson's wins so far have not been dominant enough or against good enough opponents to warrant a higher ranking. They will have plenty of opportunities to move up as the season progresses if they keep winning.
25 Marshall Thundering Herd

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