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Knightro2011 Ballot for 2017 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2017, 10:19 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Finally finished my computer formula. The formula is based on Bill Connelly's Five Factors but has a adjusted strength of schedule added in to weight how teams played vs their opponents. The more the season goes on, the less that game will be worth. This will help weight out the "Team A lost to Team B, but Team B lost to Team C that Team A beat."Those games are currently averaged together then multiplied by the Colley Winning Percentage [ (1+Number of Wins)/(2+Number of Games Played) ]. I will put an explanation of games behind the numbers to show the rankings. When /u/sirgippy posts the rankings on r/CFB, I will post the Top 40 to show a breakdown on either my lunch break or when I get home from work.It's a new formula and I am always open to looking back at the data to help make the best formula for ranking as I am new to this. Thank you all for your understanding :)

Rank Team Reason
1 UCF Knights The Knights are ranked first with two very good games played against FIU and Maryland. I believe that because they have only played two games this is throwing off the rankings versus those that have played 4 games.Note: The S&P+ rankings without preseason weights have UCF in the Top 3 overall for the same reason I explained above.
2 Miami Hurricanes The U has also played two games where they have combined for 93 points total against inferior teams (Toledo and Bethune-Cookman). However, they are very efficienct with over 1100 yards of offense in two games, averaging almost 9 yards per play and successfully converting first downs over 53% of the time.
3 Texas Tech Red Raiders Texas Tech has a high-powered offense that averages over 587 yards which is helping them. The 3-0 Red Raiders haven't played the toughest competition that weighs it down. Saturday was the worst game they have played thus far, so we will see what happens when they play tougher competition.
4 Georgia Bulldogs While Georgia may not have a fun and gun offense like Koach Kingsbury, Georgia is very efficient averaging over 6 yards per play and averaging over 5 points per trip inside the opponents 40 yard line.
5 Washington Huskies Washington averages over 7 and a quarter yards per play and are averaging over 51% success rate on converting first downs.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide Someone on r/CFB: "KNIGHTRRRRRRRO, BAMA JUST WON BY 59!!!!"Yes, they did and man, did they look good in doing it. Over 7 yards per play, averaging over 5 points per trip inside the opponents 40 (btw they had 11 of those on 12 drives), but their game against Florida State didn't help them and that is weighing them down.
7 USC Trojans USC started off with the pedal to the metal on offense, but they haven't found the same success in the last two games. Texas and Cal slowed them down from averaging 8 yards per play down to 5, lower success rate and 160 offensive yards per game.
8 TCU Horned Frogs TCU is ranked 8th after two very good, efficient games against better teams. Through the 4 games, Gary Patterson and his team have been consistent throughout those games.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State has not played a great schedule thus far, but the team from Happy Valley has over 500 yards offense in 3 of those 4 games. Penn State vs Iowa was their worst game thus far from an efficiency standpoint.
10 Memphis Tigers Memphis is 3-0 and the win over UCLA has helped them gain a lot of ground in my computer ranking. They have averaged 6.77 yards per play, averaged 5.24 points per trip inside the 40 and have improved each week on success rate.
11 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State with 1 loss has beat up on everyone else they have played. The thing that benefits them here is that they have played teams that are .500 or better so far. I don't expect that to stick so they will most likely drop from there.
12 Virginia Tech Hokies The Hokies are 4-0 and have played well in it averaging 6.37 yards per play, with almost 1300 yards of offense in their last two games, but outside of West Virginia, they have played 1 FCS school and ECU which is hurting their ranking.
13 Clemson Tigers Clemson played a heck of a game against Louisville which helped their ranking overall, but they did not play the most efficient games against Auburn and Boston College. In those two games, they averaged less than 5 yards per play and barely over 0.25 points per play.I look for Clemson to continue moving up as they play tougher teams throughout their schedule.
14 Oklahoma Sooners This is where I am going to get some crap because Ohio State lost to Oklahoma.The Sooners are dominating yards per play and their offense overall. Their schedule though has been awful outside of Ohio State. Minus them, their combined opponents record is 2-10.
15 SMU Mustangs Yes, SMU lost to TCU last week. However, they played an absolutely great game and the formula gave them a great ranking because of it. The Mustangs have been consistent with over 6.5 yards per play in each game.SMU's schedule does not do them any favors playing a 2-2 FCS team, a #52 ranked 2-2 team in North Texas and 1-2 Arky State.
16 USF Bulls By eye test, I don't know if the Bulls would be 16th. Numbers wise, the games against Illinois and Temple make them look the part. Also a 3-1 FCS team helps them a bit here. TSOW is averaging 5.4 yards per play and averaging almost 41 points per game. Key stat I saw though: their success rate of converting 1st downs - 40.8%
17 Florida Gators Two skate by wins and a beat down loss has this team at 17? Yeah, it does. UF has played 3 games with their opponents combined record of 10-2. Minus the Michigan game, the Gators have averaged 6.47 yards per play (thank Feleipe Franks in the UT game there).
18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons The Deacs are 4-0 but have played very average teams (3 of the 4 are 2-2). With an average of 5.77 yards per play and over 5.5 points per trip inside the opponents 40, Wake is making their money there. I don't know if this will hold up as they have the same success rate of first down as USF and even less when you take out the game vs Presbyterian.
19 Michigan Wolverines Someone on r/CFB: "Mooooooooom, he did it again."Yup, another team behind a team that they beat. Whole milk, steaks, slumber parties with kickers and their schedule are not helping Coach Harbaugh here. The Wolverines opponents' record is at 500 exactly and have not been efficient in the scoring department having less than 4 points per trip inside the opponents 40 in 3 of 4 games. They also have an abysmal 35.5% first down conversion rate.I look for their ranking though to be on the uptick as we go through more games.
20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The Fighting Brian Kelly's have been all over the place as far as yards and such, but the consistency they have had: play really well against the bad teams and "eh" against the others. Against Temple and BC: over 600 yards in each game, at least 7.8 yards per play in each game, and over a TD per trip inside the opponents 40.Notre Dame did do that last part well against Michigan State and had almost 6 yards per play in that game, but the Georgia game was ugly. 265 offensive yards, a success rate of 20%, and 3.17 points per trip inside opponents 40.
21 Oregon Ducks Puddles' guys played their worst game of the season Saturday which resulted in a loss. The Ducks were rolling with over 550 yards in each of the first 3 games, averaging 7.4 yards per play and a success rate of 51.3%Saturday: 401 yards of offense, 6 yards per play and a success rate of 33%
22 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa played their best game of the season on Saturday. Unfortunately, Penn State got the TD as time expired. Kirk Ferentz may be the next wizard to replace Bill Snyder because Iowa is playing well against the good teams. However, not efficient games against Wyoming and North Texas hurt the ranking here.
23 UCLA Bruins How is 2 loss UCLA in the ranking?!? Well, they score a lot of points and move the ball very well and they have had a tough schedule in the first 4 games. Their opponents are a combined 10-5 (better than most schools). The Bruins are averaging 7.7 yards per play, a success rate of 48.5% and averaging 45 points per game.
24 Navy Midshipmen Another school from the American Conference? Yes, the Power 6 is really being loved in this iteration of the formula. The 3-0 Midshipmen have played more efficiently each game thus far. They have played a weak schedule so far with two 500 teams and FAU. I don't think that will help them as they move forward.
25 Louisville Cardinals Don't count out Lamar "Action" Jackson and his Cardinals out yet. The 3-1 Louisville team played surprisingly their most efficient game against Clemson even though they were held to 21 points. They average 7.7 yards per play and almost 5 points per trip inside the opponents 40. One thing of note: the Cardinals have a negative Adjusted TO Margin in every game this season. 

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