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boonamobile Ballot for 2017 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2017, 12:29 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to boonamobile's entirely resume-based computer poll, Week 5 Edition. This week's results are already much more rational, which is reassuring. EMU drops from #1 to #40 with a loss to Ohio -- adding a third game to the denominator for them really waters down the value of their Rutgers win, who dropped to 1-3 this week with a loss to Nebraska. The split between #1 and #2 was razor thin this week, but Michigan (4-0) takes over the top spot. *****First 5 out: (26) Virginia Tech, (27) Iowa, (28) South Florida, (29) LSU, (30) Ohio State. *****Worst 5 teams: (126) Nevada (0-4), (127) Bowling Green (0-4), (128) Charlotte (0-4), (129) Baylor (0-4), (130) Georgia Southern (0-3). *****Hardest schedules so far: (1) Florida State (0-2), Fresno State (1-2), (3) BYU (1-3), (4) Florida (2-1), (5) Arizona State (2-2). *****Easiest schedules so far: (126) Eastern Michigan (2-1), (127) Old Dominion (2-2), (128) Toledo (3-1), (129) UTSA (3-0), (130) Kansas State (2-1). *****This week's Best Win: Alabama over Vanderbilt; Worst Loss: Coastal Carolina to FCS Western Illinois. *****I'm fairly happy with how my algorithm credits wins, but I'm not sure I like the way it penalizes losses. I might tweak the formula a little bit for next week.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines 4-0 Michigan surges to #1 with a win over P5 Purdue (2-2). Michigan's opponents are 7-3 (70%) against teams other than Michigan, and those 10 games have been played against teams that are an equally impressive 22-9 (71%) -- i.e., Michigan has managed to stay unbeaten against what appear to be some pretty decent teams.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama (4-0) makes their first poll appearance at #2 with a win over previously undefeated P5 Vanderbilt (3-1). Similar to Michigan, Alabama's opponents are 6-3 (67%) against teams other than Alabama, while their opponents' opponents are an even more impressive 14-4 (78%). However, their victory over Florida State (0-2) still doesn't really count for anything yet, as the Seminoles need to win at least a game or two before they can earn themselves (and Alabama) positive points. That means an FSU win over #17 Wake Forest (4-0) next week could be enough to nudge Alabama past Michigan for #1. Even though Michigan has the week off, they (like every other FBS team) can still see their ranking numbers shift depending on the performances of their previous opponents and opponents' opponents in Week 6.
3 USC Trojans
4 UCF Knights Their win over P5 Maryland (2-1) catapulted them up here, but I don't think they'll stay long; they've played only two games so far, while everyone else in the top 5 has played four, though a win next week over #24 Memphis (3-0) might still be enough keep a hypothetical 3-0 UCF hanging around the top 15. 
5 Clemson Tigers Picking up steam with wins over some decent P5 opponents who are otherwise 8-4, but those 12 games have been against teams that are a combined 19-18.
6 San Diego State Aztecs SDSU gets a nice boost for wins over two P5 programs that are otherwise 2-1. It also helps that their opponents are 5-3 outside of playing SDSU, with those 8 games coming against teams that are 19-5 (including #3 USC and #16 Texas Tech).
7 Wisconsin Badgers
8 Penn State Nittany Lions
9 Navy Midshipmen
10 Oklahoma Sooners
11 Georgia Bulldogs
12 Minnesota Golden Gophers
13 Washington Huskies
14 Duke Blue Devils
15 TCU Horned Frogs
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders
17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
18 Utah Utes
19 Washington State Cougars
20 Florida Gators
21 South Carolina Gamecocks
22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
23 UTSA Roadrunners
24 Memphis Tigers
25 Louisville Cardinals

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