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Noelthemexican Ballot for 2024 Week 12

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 10, 2024, 1:35 p.m.

Overall Rationale: The biased unbiased rankings are back. This is essentially a Colley matrix with bias (i.e. every team does not start at .5). The advantage of this is the early rankings should be a lot more palatable than the normal Colley matrix's early rankings. Last year, I used bias based on the previous years ranking, and it caused some weird stuff occasionally. This year I'm going to bias the teams by ESPN's FPI. Essentially, the rating they begin at starts around 1 and descends. At the 50th team, I stop adding any bias (meaning I don't adjust a team lower than .5). This is because last year, this system really punished teams who underwent big turnarounds, and I want to avoid that. I use a simple regression to estimate a spread, and track the ROI of it week to week (e.g. South Alabama vs App State (-6.5), say the regression indicates a spread of App State -2.5, then I will take South Alabama (+6.5) etc). If the regression equation indicates the underdog should be favored, I take moneyline. Week 5: This weeks ROI : -35.63% Overall ROI (EW) : -12.14% Biggest win: Duke +128 over NC State. Still not good. In fact, I think it might be profitable to do the opposite of what it tells you to. I guess that's valuable too. I think this is the last week we do this. I will experiment by doing the opposite.

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