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JeromesNiece Ballot for 2024 Week 12

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 10, 2024, 9:37 a.m.

Overall Rationale: These are the teams I believe are the best in college football. In general, I would expect any given team to win more than 50% of the time on a neutral field against all the teams ranked below it. I am not trying to rank the teams by how good of a season they've had. I would not recommend determining a playoff field with this method. I start with an average of predictive computer models and make subjective adjustments as necessary. I am a Bayesian: I update my prior beliefs about how good each team is based on all new incoming evidence. One team having fewer losses than another is not particularly useful information in determining how good each team is. Accordingly, I'm not going to rank one team higher than another just because one has fewer losses. I'm not even necessarily going to rank a team over another just because that team has beaten the other head-to-head. The better team can, and often does, lose to the worse team.

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