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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2024 Week 12

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 11, 2024, 5:38 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 12 notes: Deservedness keeping highly-rated 2-loss teams such as Alabama and Texas A&M behind 0-loss Army; UNLV can be ranked over Army due to loss allowance. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Oregon Ducks +0. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Tennessee/#9 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes +0. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 UNLV in the first round
3 Penn State Nittany Lions +1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Boise State in the first round
4 Indiana Hoosiers +1. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Miami in the first round
5 Texas Longhorns +2. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Indiana/#10 Miami in the Sugar Bowl
6 Tennessee Volunteers +2. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Notre Dame in the first round
7 BYU Cougars +2. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Penn State/#11 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Tennessee in the first round
9 SMU Mustangs +2. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Ohio State/#12 UNLV in the Cotton Bowl
10 Miami Hurricanes -7. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Indiana in the first round
11 Boise State Broncos +3. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Penn State in the first round. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
12 UNLV Rebels +3. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Ohio State in the first round. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
13 Washington State Cougars +3. Deservedness blocking highly-rated 2-loss teams with no loss allowances over Army such as Alabama from being ranked ahead of Army
14 Army West Point +3. Lowest-rated 0-loss team
15 Alabama Crimson Tide +5. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
16 Texas A&M Aggies +2. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
17 Ole Miss Rebels +5. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
18 Georgia Bulldogs -12. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
19 Clemson Tigers +2. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
20 Kansas State Wildcats +3. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
21 Colorado Buffaloes +3. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
22 Iowa State Cyclones -10. Deservedness blocking them from being ranked higher
23 Arizona State Sun Devils NEW
24 Missouri Tigers +1
25 Pittsburgh Panthers -12. Next 5: Tulane, Louisiana (lowest-rated 1-loss team), Louisville, LSU, South Carolina

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