NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 12
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 10, 2024, 11:23 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
2.839 (11.6-0.4) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
2.412 (10.5-1.5) |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
2.328 (11.2-0.8) |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.803 (10.5-1.5) |
| 5 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.657 (10.9-1.1) |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.540 (10.4-1.6) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.513 (9.4-2.6) |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.512 (9.6-2.4) |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.496 (10.2-1.8) |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.417 (10.1-1.9) |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.416 (10.7-1.3) |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.413 (10.5-1.5) |
| 13 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.267 (9.7-2.3) |
| 14 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1.226 (10.4-1.6) |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.180 (8.9-3.1) |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.159 (8.2-3.8) |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.125 (8.2-3.8) |
| 18 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.109 (9.1-2.9) |
| 19 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.092 (8.0-4.0) |
| 20 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.054 (9.0-3.0) |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.932 (8.5-3.5) |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.932 (8.2-3.8) |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.869 (7.8-4.2) |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.862 (5.9-6.1) |
| 25 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.831 (8.8-3.2) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.25 |
| 5 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.08 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.57 |
| 13 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.92 |
| 17 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.96 |
| 18 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.60 |
| 20 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.31 |
| 22 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.17 |
| 23 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
2.22 |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.24 |
| 25 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Army West Point
|
1.40 |
Washington State Cougars
|
1.34 |
Colorado Buffaloes
|
1.75 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.15 |
Total Score: 13.97