BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2024 Week 3
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 9, 2024, 3:18 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Notes for this week: Maryland, Kentucky, Kansas State, UTSA, Auburn, Wisconsin, Arizona, Boise State, James Madison dropped out.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
no change |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+2 |
| 3 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1 |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-1 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+2 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-1 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
+4 |
| 8 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+2 |
| 9 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-3 |
| 10 |
Washington Huskies
|
+19 |
| 11 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
+3 |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
+14 |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
+7 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-6 |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
+23 |
| 16 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-8 |
| 17 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-6, not sure what the model doesn't like but they're passing the eye test so far. Will start manually moving them up if they keep playing well once they start facing quality opponents. |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
+20 |
| 19 |
Memphis Tigers
|
+10 |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
+46 |
| 21 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
-5 |
| 22 |
UCF Knights
|
+9 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
-7 |
| 24 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
+3, manually added instead of Texas A&M. I think Rhule's team is legit this year. |
| 25 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
+17 but forced down because of loss |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.23 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.09 |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.02 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.67 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.19 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.97 |
| 10 |
Washington Huskies
|
1.99 |
| 11 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-0.43 |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
-0.04 |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.77 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.97 |
| 16 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.92 |
| 17 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-0.97 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
6.64 |
| 19 |
Memphis Tigers
|
3.70 |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
3.80 |
| 22 |
UCF Knights
|
1.15 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
-2.24 |
| 24 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
0.11 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
2.05 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
2.39 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.64 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.52 |
Boston College Eagles
|
0.25 |
Total Score: 33.77