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msonar623 Ballot for 2024 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 9, 2024, 11:54 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a computer poll that uses margin of victory, game location, and game control (GC) as inputs. GC is calculated from the average margin at the end of each possession in a game. So a team that jumps out ahead early in a game and wins by multiple scores will have a better GC than a team that is in a tight game then gets a couple late scores, even if both end with the same MOV. Each team is given a rating in each game based on win/loss, home/away/neutral, MOV, and GC. That rating is combined along with Opponents Rating and Opponents-opponent Rating to give a final ranking. Rankings are averaged over number of games played so bye weeks or teams with FCS games don’t affect the final result. This ranking does not consider FCS results, so if a team plays 1 FCS team at the end of the season they will have ratings for 11 games rather than 12. As with any computer ranking early season results are random. Therefore, early in the season I have preseason rankings mixed in to give a better result. Preseason ranking consists of 50% prior season rank from this computer poll, 30% returning production per Bill C, 20% team talent composite per 247. Preseason weight is scaled down until it reaches zero around week 5 or 6. Current season ranking weight is set to 20% of the average number of FBS games played per team. For example after week 2 of the 2024 season, teams have played an average of 1.3 FBS opponents, and therefore ranking breakdown is as follows: 26.7% current season 36.6% prior season 21.1% returning production 14.6% team talent composite As discussed this computer ranking after week 5 will be entirely based on current season results.

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