NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 3
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 8, 2024, 1:51 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.325 (10.5-1.5) |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.253 (9.6-2.4) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.189 (9.9-2.1) |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.135 (9.6-2.4) |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.082 (9.9-2.1) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.997 (9.2-2.8) |
| 7 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.992 (8.4-3.6) |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.942 (9.7-2.3) |
| 9 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.911 (8.5-3.5) |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
0.827 (8.2-3.8) |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.809 (9.4-2.6) |
| 12 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.712 (7.8-4.2) |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.699 (9.0-3.0) |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.665 (8.8-3.2) |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
0.651 (8.5-3.5) |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.575 (7.0-5.0) |
| 17 |
UCF Knights
|
0.615 (8.5-3.5) |
| 18 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.575 (8.2-3.8) |
| 19 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.560 (8.4-3.6) |
| 20 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.530 (8.4-3.6) |
| 21 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.498 (8.5-3.5) |
| 22 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.490 (7.9-4.1) |
| 23 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.478 (8.4-3.6) |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.458 (6.9-5.1) |
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.453 (7.0-5.0) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.34 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.02 |
| 5 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.19 |
| 7 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
2.43 |
| 8 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.49 |
| 12 |
Washington Huskies
|
1.54 |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.77 |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.43 |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.13 |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
UCF Knights
|
4.28 |
| 18 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.18 |
| 20 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.53 |
| 21 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.90 |
| 22 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
1.64 |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.64 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
0.43 |
Boston College Eagles
|
0.25 |
Total Score: 16.19