Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 27, 2023, 12:36 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: UTSA, UCLA dropped out. For the poll at the end of the regular season I manually adjusted so that undefeated/1-loss P5 teams are always higher than 2-loss teams and 2-loss Big 12/B1G/SEC/Pac-12 teams are ahead of 3-loss teams. I am generally not favoring ACC teams because their SOS has been bad, and after 2 losses I give more judgment calls to the model.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	-2 according to model but clear #1 based on eye test and last week's model
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	+2
3	Michigan Wolverines	-3 according to model, manually moved up ahead of OSU obviously
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	+2 according to model but moved down after loss
5	Oregon Ducks	+2 according to model but they just don't have convincing enough wins to make me think they're better than the top 4
6	Texas Longhorns	+4, you could definitely argue Texas above Oregon based on SOS but I'll let the model decide here to remove my personal bias
7	Florida State Seminoles	+1, still not passing the eye test but still somehow winning
8	Washington Huskies	+2 according to model but moved down from last week's rank because they struggled against Wazzu. Pac-12 CCG should be a fun one so let's see how they do
9	Oklahoma Sooners	+3
10	Missouri Tigers	+3 according to model but moved up above Notre Dame/LSU
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	-2
12	Ole Miss Rebels	no change according to model, moved up ahead of >2-loss teams
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-1 according to model, moved down farther below 2-loss teams
14	LSU Tigers	-2
15	Arizona Wildcats	+1, Fisch has been impressive
16	SMU Mustangs	+8, probably overrated but the model really likes them
17	Louisville Cardinals	-3
18	Kansas State Wildcats	-7
19	Tennessee Volunteers	+1
20	Oregon State Beavers	-6
21	Troy Trojans	+3
22	Utah Utes	+5
23	Kansas Jayhawks	+8
24	James Madison Dukes	-4
25	Clemson Tigers	-3

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.67
3	Michigan Wolverines	-0.11
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.56
5	Oregon Ducks	0.00
6	Texas Longhorns	0.00
7	Florida State Seminoles	-0.77
8	Washington Huskies	-1.74
9	Oklahoma Sooners	0.54
10	Missouri Tigers	0.00
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
12	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.66
14	LSU Tigers	0.00
15	Arizona Wildcats	0.00
16	SMU Mustangs	2.14
17	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
18	Kansas State Wildcats	1.94
19	Tennessee Volunteers	2.72
20	Oregon State Beavers	0.05
21	Troy Trojans	2.51
22	Utah Utes	2.55
23	Kansas Jayhawks	2.05
24	James Madison Dukes	0.00
25	Clemson Tigers	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Tulane Green Wave	1.49
Iowa Hawkeyes	1.64
Liberty Flames	0.38
Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.93
NC State Wolfpack	0.81
Toledo Rockets	0.47

Total Score: 27.72