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CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 14

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 27, 2023, 2:37 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies 51.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Arizona, Oregon State). In my model, Washington is guaranteed a playoff spot, even with a loss to Oregon. At worst, Washington can finish with the #3 seed.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 47.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (LSU). 3 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). Alabama will be on the outside, looking in, if they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game AND Washington, Florida State, and Michigan all win their respective conferences. In reality, Alabama is likely eliminated with a second loss. Could this be the year that a two-loss team makes it into the mix?
3 Georgia Bulldogs 45.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 3 SP+ T-25 wins (Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee). In my model, two-time reigning national champion Georgia can be left out of the playoff with a loss to Alabama AND wins by Washington, Florida State, and Michigan. Personally, I think the committee will put both Alabama and Georgia in the playoff with an Alabama win (leaving Florida State out), but that may not matter at the end of the day.
4 Florida State Seminoles 44.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (LSU). 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Clemson, Miami). In my model, FSU is in with a win. But, IRL, will Jordan Travis's injury keep them out in favor of two one-loss SEC teams?
5 Michigan Wolverines 44.0 pts. 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Penn State, Ohio State). I have a feeling people are going to have a problem with where my model has Michigan after beating Ohio State. But if you look more closely at their wins, they have eight wins over teams outside of the SP+ T-50. They still received credit for their two big wins, of course, but will their weak schedule keep them out of the final four in the final rankings?
6 Ohio State Buckeyes 41.5 pts. 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Notre Dame, Penn State). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Michigan). In my model, Ohio State has been eliminated from the playoff - even with losses, the following teams will finish with more points than Ohio State after conference championship weekend - Washington, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida State.
7 Texas Longhorns 41.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oklahoma). In my model, Texas needs losses by both Georgia and Florida State to grab a spot in the playoff.
8 Oregon Ducks 32.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Oregon State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Washington). As crazy as it seems, in my model, even with a win over Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the only way Oregon can secure a playoff spot is if Texas, Florida State, and Michigan each lose their respective championship games. In this scenario, the final playoff teams would be Georgia, Washington, Alabama, and Oregon.
9 Ole Miss Rebels 32.5 pts.
10 Missouri Tigers 31.5 pts.
11 Oklahoma Sooners 29.5 pts.
12 LSU Tigers 27.5 pts.
13 Liberty Flames 24.0 pts.
14 Penn State Nittany Lions 21.0 pts.
15 NC State Wolfpack 21.0 pts.
16 Louisville Cardinals 20.5 pts.
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 20.0 pts.
18 Arizona Wildcats 19.5 pts.
19 Utah Utes 18.0 pts.
20 Iowa Hawkeyes 16.5 pts.
21 James Madison Dukes 14.5 pts.
22 Clemson Tigers 14.0 pts.
23 Toledo Rockets 13.5 pts.
24 Tennessee Volunteers 13.0 pts.
25 SMU Mustangs 11.5 pts.

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