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hurricaneatx Ballot for 2023 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 26, 2023, 10:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Once is a mistake, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern." Like most human rankings, this is a blend of both a power ranking (reasoning whether higher ranked teams would beat lower ranked teams a majority of the time on a neutral field) and resume ranking (reasoning whether higher ranked teams have proven themselves against competition). The most recent head-to-head results are important, but lose influence the further removed they are from the present. Results against common competition are a useful gauge, but are often not reliable tools to gauge the gap between teams. I don't put much importance in the specific ranking of a team, so teams of similar strengths can be bit "liquid" and move around the poll a bit. Admittedly, I am quite busy, so I don't watch many individual games. I am a Texas Longhorns fan, which could influence my perception. I think analytics like ESPN's FPI efficiencies and strength of record can be useful aids to identify fringe teams whose records don't jump of the page, but have demonstrated success and deserve a shout in a top 25 poll. My rankings are not a reflection of my thoughts on playoff inclusion. [Teams in the ranking suburbs (no particular order): Miami (OH), Kansas State, Troy, Kansas, Utah] (Teams in the ranking exurbs (no particular order): Tennessee, North Carolina, UNLV, Memphis, New Mexico State, Ohio, Clemson, UCLA, USC)

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines (12-0) - Although they did coast through almost the entirety of their season without much serious competition, Michigan now boasts the highest strength-of-record and all-team efficiency among all undefeated teams, so they're taking the #1 spot in this week's rankings.
2 Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
3 Washington Huskies (12-0)
4 Florida State Seminoles (12-0) - I would imagine that a power rating would have the Seminoles much lower. I think competent Florida squad would have convincingly beat the Seminoles. We'll see if Florida State can survive Louisville to secure a spot in the playoff next week.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - I don't think Ohio State should get a playoff spot in a hypothetical scenario over potential conference champion Oregon, Alabama, or Texas. However, thinking independently of the playoff, I think the aggregate of Ohio State's quality wins and loss is in sum slightly better than the other 11-1 teams.
6 Oregon Ducks (11-1)
7 Texas Longhorns (11-1)
8 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
9 Ole Miss Rebels (10-2)
10 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
11 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
12 Arizona Wildcats (9-3)
13 Missouri Tigers (10-2) - I've been putting Missouri behind LSU due to their loss at home versus LSU, but by this juncture I think Missouri's put together a good enough body of work to convincingly be ahead of LSU along with their 10-2 record. I think a top-10 Missouri would be overrating when reconciling both resume and the eye test.
14 LSU Tigers (9-3)
15 Louisville Cardinals (10-2) - Why are you losing these games, Louisville? You should be undefeated.
16 Tulane Green Wave (11-1)
17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2)
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3)
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) - The Cowboys have remarkably stumbled backwards into the Big 12 championship.
20 SMU Mustangs (10-2) - SMU has put together a great season under the radar. I'm very much looking forward to them squaring off against Tulane for the conference title. Their only losses are respectable matchups against decent Big 12 competition, so in sum I've put SMU past the undefeated Liberty G5 ranking barrier.
21 Liberty Flames (12-0) - It is pretty remarkable that Liberty has had the weakest SOS in all of FBS all season. They'd be ranked higher if they faced anyone with a pulse, though their win against New Mexico State is decent.
22 Toledo Rockets (11-1)
23 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) - It's unfortunate what the Beavers have gone through and are going through. Oregon State's a better team than their #23 ranking, though their resume does not separate them much from the other teams in the back of the top 25.
24 James Madison Dukes (11-1)
25 NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - NC State makes an appearance in this week's top 25 after pulling off five wins in a row.

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