Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 26, 2023, 6:29 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 14 notes: Deservedness keeping the high-rated 2-loss teams such as Penn State and Missouri behind low-rated 0-loss teams such as Liberty, high-rated 3-loss teams such as LSU and Notre Dame behind low-rated 1-loss teams such as Toledo, and high-rated 4-loss teams such as Oregon State and Utah behind low-rated 2-loss teams such as Miami OH. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Michigan Wolverines | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl. Depends on the CCG results, but my post-CCG poll would probably only have Ohio State in the top four if there was a lot of chaos |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
4 | Washington Huskies | If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have Texas winning and joining Michigan, Georgia, and Washington |
5 | Oregon Ducks | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
6 | Texas Longhorns | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl. I have Texas winning their CCG and getting into the top four |
7 | Alabama Crimson Tide | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl. Rates higher than Texas, but head-to-head loss puts them behind |
8 | Florida State Seminoles | If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl. If they win their CCG, they’re in the top four |
9 | Tulane Green Wave | If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
10 | James Madison Dukes | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
11 | Liberty Flames | If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl. Lowest-rated 0-loss team ranked now allows 2-loss teams to be ranked after them |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl. Would be ahead of Florida State if not for Deservedness |
13 | Missouri Tigers | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
14 | Ole Miss Rebels | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
15 | Oklahoma Sooners | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
16 | Louisville Cardinals | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
17 | SMU Mustangs | Would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
18 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
19 | Troy Trojans | Would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness |
20 | Toledo Rockets | Lowest-rated 1-loss team ranked now allows 3-loss teams to be ranked after them |
21 | LSU Tigers | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
22 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
23 | Arizona Wildcats | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
24 | NC State Wolfpack | Would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness |
25 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness. Next eleven: Memphis, New Mexico State, Miami (OH) (lowest-rated 2-loss team ranked now allows 4-loss teams to be ranked after them); Oregon State, Utah, Kansas State, Tennessee, Kansas (all would be ahead of Tulane if not for Deservedness), West Virginia, North Carolina (all would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness), UTSA |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.30 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1.84 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.34 |
4 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
5 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
6 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
7 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
8 | Florida State Seminoles | -1.41 |
9 | Tulane Green Wave | 1.44 |
10 | James Madison Dukes | 2.07 |
11 | Liberty Flames | 0.99 |
12 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -0.04 |
13 | Missouri Tigers | -0.39 |
14 | Ole Miss Rebels | -0.29 |
15 | Oklahoma Sooners | -0.50 |
16 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
17 | SMU Mustangs | 1.76 |
18 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.00 |
19 | Troy Trojans | 4.09 |
20 | Toledo Rockets | 0.00 |
21 | LSU Tigers | -1.25 |
22 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -0.70 |
23 | Arizona Wildcats | -1.32 |
24 | NC State Wolfpack | -0.08 |
25 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | -0.62 |