NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 14
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 26, 2023, 10:28 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
9.11 (12-0) |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
8.19 (12-0) |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
7.81 (12-0) |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
7.43 (11-1) |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
7.32 (12-0) |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
6.47 (11-1) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
6.08 (11-1) |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
6.06 (10-2) |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
5.92 (10-2) |
| 10 |
Liberty Flames
|
5.65 (12-0) |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
5.63 (11-1) |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
5.50 (9-3) |
| 13 |
Missouri Tigers
|
5.39 (10-2) |
| 14 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
4.85 (11-1) |
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
4.66 (10-2) |
| 16 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
4.53 (10-2) |
| 17 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
4.52 (10-2) |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
4.49 (8-4) |
| 19 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
4.49 (9-3) |
| 20 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
4.46 (9-3) |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
4.41 (8-4) |
| 22 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
4.39 (8-4) |
| 23 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
4.28 (9-3) |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
4.24 (11-1) |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
4.22 (7-5) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.30 |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.34 |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.56 |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.43 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.57 |
| 10 |
Liberty Flames
|
1.18 |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-2.99 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.10 |
| 13 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.39 |
| 14 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.14 |
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.50 |
| 16 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
6.47 |
| 19 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
-0.43 |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.53 |
| 22 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
0.19 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.93 |
Toledo Rockets
|
0.47 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.15 |
Total Score: 17.67