BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2023 Week 11
Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 5, 2023, 8:54 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Air Force, UCLA dropped out. Texas A&M dropped out manually (ranked 16 according to model).
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
+3 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
+3 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-2 (+1 manually) |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-4 (+1 manually) |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
+7 (+1 manually) |
| 6 |
LSU Tigers
|
no change according to model, manually dropped (from 3) below Bama because Bama literally just beat them |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
+5 |
| 8 |
Washington Huskies
|
+6 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-1 (+1 manually) |
| 10 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-3 (+1 manually) |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-6 (+1 manually) |
| 12 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
+1, manually dropped (from 9) because Texas literally just beat them |
| 13 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-2 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-7 |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
+6 |
| 16 |
Missouri Tigers
|
+1 |
| 17 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
+4 |
| 18 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3 |
| 19 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
+3 |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-2 according to model (manually unranked last week) |
| 21 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
-2 |
| 22 |
SMU Mustangs
|
-5 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
+7 |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
+1 |
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
+7 |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.34 |
| 2 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.86 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.04 |
| 6 |
LSU Tigers
|
2.86 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.40 |
| 8 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1.38 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.40 |
| 10 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.42 |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1.27 |
| 12 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
3.14 |
| 13 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-4.29 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.57 |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-1.18 |
| 16 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.57 |
| 19 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
1.37 |
| 20 |
Clemson Tigers
|
5.18 |
| 21 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
0.50 |
| 22 |
SMU Mustangs
|
2.95 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
-1.36 |
| 24 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
-0.61 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
2.18 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
1.73 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.91 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.01 |
Total Score: 42.52