Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 6, 2023, 9:40 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Deservedness keeping 2-loss teams such as Oklahoma State and Kansas behind 0-loss teams such as Liberty and 3-loss teams such as LSU and Notre Dame behind 1-loss teams such as Toledo. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have Michigan winning the Big Ten |
2 |
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If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
3 |
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If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
4 |
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If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have Michigan winning the Big Ten and Georgia being in the playoff with Michigan, FSU, and Washington |
5 |
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If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
6 |
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If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
7 |
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If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
8 |
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If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
9 |
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If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
10 |
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If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
11 |
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If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
12 |
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Not eligible for conference title game so can’t be the highest-ranked G5 champ |
13 |
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If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
14 |
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Very close to hopping over Tulane for the highest-ranked G5 champ spot |
15 |
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Even though they lost to Army (a rivalry game where there’s usually more variance compared to non-rivalry games), they are still ranked higher than Liberty |
16 |
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As the lowest-ranked 0-loss team, they are keeping all of the 2+ loss teams behind them |
17 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness factor |
18 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
19 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
20 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
21 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
22 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
23 |
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Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
24 |
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Would be ahead of Fresno State if not for Deservedness |
25 |
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Would be ahead of Air Force if not for Deservedness. Next 7: Troy, Iowa, Memphis (all would be ahead of Air Force if not for Deservedness), UNLV (would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness), Toledo (the last 1-loss team keeping 3+ loss teams such as LSU and Notre Dame behind them), and LSU (would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.34 |
2 |
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0.42 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.00 |
5 |
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0.20 |
6 |
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-0.88 |
7 |
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0.00 |
8 |
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0.00 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.36 |
13 |
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1.31 |
14 |
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3.29 |
15 |
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5.06 |
16 |
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0.62 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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0.00 |
19 |
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0.00 |
20 |
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-0.17 |
21 |
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-0.23 |
22 |
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-1.10 |
23 |
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-1.36 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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0.67 |
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0.32 |
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0.31 |
Total Score: 16.63