Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Nov. 6, 2023, 9:40 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 11 notes: Deservedness keeping 2-loss teams such as Oklahoma State and Kansas behind 0-loss teams such as Liberty and 3-loss teams such as LSU and Notre Dame behind 1-loss teams such as Toledo. General notes: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 6-2 Notre Dame can be ranked over 7-1 Missouri, but 6-2 Notre Dame cannot be ranked over 7-0 Liberty even if Notre Dame beat Liberty heads up, rankings have Notre Dame over Liberty, and/or I think Notre Dame is better than Liberty)
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have Michigan winning the Big Ten |
| 2 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
| 3 |
Washington Huskies
|
If season were to end right now: Sugar Bowl |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
If season were to end right now: Rose Bowl. I have Michigan winning the Big Ten and Georgia being in the playoff with Michigan, FSU, and Washington |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
| 9 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
If season were to end right now: Peach Bowl |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
If season were to end right now: Cotton Bowl |
| 11 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
If season were to end right now: Orange Bowl |
| 12 |
James Madison Dukes
|
Not eligible for conference title game so can’t be the highest-ranked G5 champ |
| 13 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
If season were to end right now: Fiesta Bowl |
| 14 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
Very close to hopping over Tulane for the highest-ranked G5 champ spot |
| 15 |
Air Force Falcons
|
Even though they lost to Army (a rivalry game where there’s usually more variance compared to non-rivalry games), they are still ranked higher than Liberty |
| 16 |
Liberty Flames
|
As the lowest-ranked 0-loss team, they are keeping all of the 2+ loss teams behind them |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness factor |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 19 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 20 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 22 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
Would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness |
| 24 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
Would be ahead of Fresno State if not for Deservedness |
| 25 |
SMU Mustangs
|
Would be ahead of Air Force if not for Deservedness. Next 7: Troy, Iowa, Memphis (all would be ahead of Air Force if not for Deservedness), UNLV (would be ahead of Liberty if not for Deservedness), Toledo (the last 1-loss team keeping 3+ loss teams such as LSU and Notre Dame behind them), and LSU (would be ahead of James Madison if not for Deservedness) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.34 |
| 2 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.42 |
| 3 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.20 |
| 6 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.88 |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.36 |
| 13 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.31 |
| 14 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
3.29 |
| 15 |
Air Force Falcons
|
5.06 |
| 16 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.62 |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.17 |
| 21 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
-0.23 |
| 22 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
-1.10 |
| 23 |
Utah Utes
|
-1.36 |
| 24 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
LSU Tigers
|
0.67 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.32 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.31 |
Total Score: 16.63