NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 11
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 5, 2023, 10:03 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
5.45 (11.2-0.8) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
5.26 (11.0-1.0) |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
5.08 (11.3-0.7) |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
5.00 (11.6-0.4) |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
4.89 (10.8-1.2) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
4.88 (10.2-1.8) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
4.85 (10.6-1.4) |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
4.66 (10.3-1.7) |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
4.62 (9.9-2.1) |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
4.40 (9.1-2.9) |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
4.36 (10.2-1.8) |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
4.21 (9.0-3.0) |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
4.20 (8.3-3.7) |
| 14 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
4.16 (10.2-0.8) |
| 15 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
4.15 (8.6-3.4) |
| 16 |
James Madison Dukes
|
4.11 (11.2-0.8) |
| 17 |
USC Trojans
|
4.00 (7.8-4.2) |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
4.00 (8.3-3.7) |
| 19 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
3.96 (8.7-3.3) |
| 20 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
3.84 (7.8-4.2) |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
3.84 (8.9-3.1) |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
3.78 (9.1-2.9) |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
3.74 (8.4-3.6) |
| 24 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
3.74 (7.1-4.9) |
| 25 |
UCLA Bruins
|
3.70 (7.9-4.1) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.34 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.00 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Utah Utes
|
0.82 |
| 11 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1.27 |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.62 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.10 |
| 14 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-0.65 |
| 15 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
USC Trojans
|
6.51 |
| 18 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.16 |
| 20 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.55 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
3.20 |
| 22 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.79 |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
1.18 |
| 25 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
2.18 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
1.73 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.91 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.01 |
Total Score: 23.02